“It is difficult to estimate real inflation”, “the process of deceleration of inflation is unstable”.  Comments on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics

Inflation in September It reached the level of 8.2 percent every year. This is a significant decline compared to August, when the index was still in double digits – 10.1. Many experts confirm this The September reading was mainly influenced by fuel. These products became cheaper by 7% year on year, while food and energy prices rose by about 10% at the same time.

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Monika Kortic, chief economist at Pocztowy Bank, tempers her optimism following the latest data from the Central Statistical Office. In her opinion, in the last quarter of this year inflation may be around 7.0 percent. r/r. He stressed that current expectations indicate that from March 2024, inflation may begin to accelerate again.

“It is difficult to estimate real inflation.”

According to some experts, low fuel prices, divorced from market realities, have artificially depressed inflation.

True inflation is actually difficult to estimate In a situation where food prices are artificially low, and fuel prices do not reflect changes in the oil market, energy prices freeze. after elections We will wake up to a different reality. Making prices more realistic will hurt – writes the professor. Slawomir Kalinowski, economist from the Institute of Rural Development and Agriculture of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

“Centrally controlled crushed inflation rate”

Dr. Sławomir Dodik, chief economist at the Institute of Public Finance (IFP), also believes that the latest inflation data is not entirely objective.

“As expected The artificially low, centrally controlled inflation rate reached 8.2% in September. r/r. Full inflation is still in the double digits. Hidden inflation in Poland is 5-6 points. percent Because: we have it artificially and temporarily Low fuel pricesWe have it temporarily Suspension of value-added tax on foodstuffsWe have it temporarily Frozen gas and electricity prices“The Prime Minister centrally controls PKP rates and highway tolls through orders.”

No country in the world can afford to freeze prices forever. The People’s Republic of Poland could not bear it, Hungary could not bear it last year, and Turkey cannot bear it now. Poland is next. The government is not telling the truth After the freeze is lifted, prices will rise significantly after the elections. Instead of building wind farms, photovoltaic farms and energy conversion, we artificially freeze coal and secretly import it from Russia – sums it up.

Core inflation is falling more slowly than in countries in the region

ING Economics in Poland fears that excessive optimism about inflation by the National Bank of Japan “may prompt the market to protest against the weaker zloty.” Reasons? Poland’s disinflation process appears unstable compared to other countries. The decline in core inflation remains much slower than in the region, Which indicates a significant share of one-time externalities – write the bank’s experts in their comments.

They also confirm that in the Czech Republic the inflation target will be achieved in the first quarter of 2024, In Poland, the Polish National Bank expects the CPI to reach around 3.5%. In the second half of 2025. “Much later, in our opinion.” – Analysts confirm. They also believe that the speech of the Chairman of the National Bank of Japan next week will be very important for the zloty.

An excessive supply of single-digit inflation could raise fears that the National Reserve will return to an ultra-accommodative stance, which differs from inflation expectations and the stance of the region’s central banks, the Fed and the European Central Bank, which could lead to greater inflation. Weakening PLN – stress on bankers.

“Inflation has been falling for some time”

Przemyslaw Koyczyn confirms that the inflation reading was affected by reductions in energy prices (-0.8% on a monthly basis) and fuel prices (-3.1%).

The inflation rate may even fall to 4.5%. He confirms that at the end of the first quarter of 2024 (depending on regulatory changes), but after that it will rebound a little and reducing it further will be a challenge.

Piotr Kuczynski confirms that “the president’s prophetic visions regarding September 7 turned out to be consistent with the facts of the Central Statistical Office basket,” he points out. It is noteworthy that the reading was made “thanks to another president (of hydrocarbons)” and “the reduction in energy prices by 12%.”

Inflation has collapsed (for a while) From 10.1 to 8.2 percent miracles, miracles (election year), sums up.

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