This means that a parliamentary majority based solely on attempts to govern is not enough. But after the recent elections, is it possible to find such a coalition with a common program? To try to answer this question, I propose to briefly outline the basic choices that Poland faces. what is he talking about? What are the burning questions of the day?
The government for what programme?
1/ -Is patriotism and Polishness important to us?
– Do we despise Polishness and believe that Poland is a second-class country and must learn everything from the West?
2/ -Do we want a proud and sovereign Poland?
Or dependent Poland, which kneels before the authorities of Brussels and Germany?
3/ Do we, like de Gaulle and the fathers of Europe, want a Europe of nations that respects the independence of nations?
Or is a federal Europe that destroys the independence and sovereignty of states?
4/ —- Do we respect moral and spiritual values, such as Saint John Paul II and solidarity?
– Do we prefer wukism, that is, replacing freedom with discretion?
5/ -Do we want to maintain an economic policy based on the alliance of the free market and solidarity, that is, pro-social and pro-family?
– Do we want to return to the economic policy followed until 2015 and which was further promoted by the European Union, that is, the neoliberal policy that seeks to make the rich richer and the poor poorer?
6/ – Do we prefer to support the agricultural economy based on family and organic farming?
Do we want, as the Brussels authorities did, to push for industrial agriculture on a large scale?
7/ Do we believe that Poland should continue to seek a balance between cooperation within the European Union and cooperation with the United States, the sole guarantor of Poland’s security?
Do we want to take risks by seeking full integration with a shaky EU?
8/ Should immigrants be accepted into our country without accepting elements that threaten the security and cohesion of the nation, as is already happening in many European countries?
-Do we have an obligation to accept all immigrants, regardless of serious threats?
As we know, the current United Right answers yes to the first axiom in every question, and the PO always answers yes to the second part of the alternative to these eight questions.
What about other political formations? It is difficult to say anything about Mr. Holonia’s party, because it is not clear whether he has any political program at all. But let’s take the left, for example. He might, like PO, choose many of the latter answers, for example regarding disrespect for Polish and tendency toward wokiism. But have you forgotten enough about the times when the Polish United Workers’ Party was dependent on the “Big Brother” in the Kremlin to willingly accept the decrees, orders and orders of the “Big Brother” in Brussels? Moreover, how will the New Left be able to embrace the anti-social and unjust PO laws? How will left-wing voters react to this? Wouldn’t this be a kind of political hara-kiri for the left?
When we look at the PSL, the situation should be clear. If the PSL is at least still in some way a Witos party, that is, a Christian and patriotic party. In fact, such a party would respond 8 times like PiS, and in no way like PiS! In addition, an alliance with the right, rather than with the Civic Platform Party, would allow the PSP to rebuild its lost position in the countryside. A PiS-PiS government or PiS-PiS government would be a natural solution, to avoid a new Targowica victory.
Finally, the problem of confederation should be obvious, since this party is more “national” than PiS and far removed from the United Platform party than Jarosław Kaczyński’s party! Unless the union actually becomes nothing more than a Trojan horse for the right, created solely to get votes from the right united to govern. Perhaps a study on how to finance formation would resolve these doubts? Incidentally, a survey of the financing of all political forces involved in the recent elections – especially foreign interference – seems necessary before accepting the results. But it is known that you cannot rely on this in NIK activities…
In any case, it can be seen that in reality – taking into account purely political criteria – after these elections, the right, and not Tusk and his comrades, will be closer to gathering a majority to implement a common government programme.
The inevitable defeat of the Tusk government 2.0
Indeed, even if Mr. Tusk manages to form a government, it is already clear that his situation will be dire. It is certainly possible to expect the Tusk 2.0 government to end in a more dramatic failure than the Tusk 1.0 government in 2015.
why is that?
a/ The Communist Party can return to power when Poland’s position is very strong in all areas. Poland has the strongest economy in the European Union. Where in 2015 Poland’s standard of living was equivalent to about two-thirds of the European average, it is now almost close to this average. Poland overtook Greece, then Portugal, and most recently Spain. The British press claims that in 2030 the standard of living will be (or will be without a change of government) higher in Poland than on the islands. Today Poland is respected as one of Europe’s most important leaders. Everyone admits that Poland’s leaders (PiS!) were right, whether about Putin and Russia or about the tragic risks posed by migration. Poland, in alliance with the United States, has the strongest army in Europe (along with the British Army). The propaganda bombardment obscured these facts, but citizens were soon able to draw comparisons – just a few months after the Tusk government.
B/ Mr. Tusk is not a “leader.” He has neither the desire nor the ability to be anything more than a “ruler.” (It was funny how, immediately after the election, he rushed to Ms. von der Leyen, to report that “mission accomplished” – at least he did not kiss her hand, as Chancellor Merkel once did.) However, now we do not have the situation we had in 2015. The authorities in both Brussels and Berlin have been greatly weakened. Mr. Tusk is thus a ruler in desperate search for a president, like the character searching for an author in a Pirandello play.
C/ In the country, the Tusk government will be, as we have shown, very inconsistent and unstable. There will be a constant danger that the artificial alliance will collapse.
Dr/ Until 2015, the EU economy was doing very well. Now the European Union is facing a crisis and everyone expects the crisis to become more dramatic. The neoliberal policy, still preached by Brussels, is collapsing before our eyes. The king is naked. The Tusk government, Brussels’ darling, will only be able to drag Poland into the abyss of recession in which Germany has already found itself. The collapse of the entire eurozone has become even more dramatic, with Germany, Italy and France owing between €2,500 and €3,000 billion (with a debt service ratio already at 4%).
H/ Perhaps the Pro-Platform Party will return to power in Warsaw, promoting cosmopolitanism and the willingness to accept immigrants, at the moment when Europe begins to wake up and move away from these tendencies. Everywhere the right is getting stronger and can win the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. Even President Macron warns of the accelerating crisis of civilization and uses the term “civilization.” Scandinavian countries, such as Denmark and Sweden, which until recently were willing to accept any immigrants, are abandoning this policy after tragic experiences and threats to the safety of their citizens. Mr. Tusk, who so impatiently wants to go with the flow, will have to swim against the current! It is doubtful that he will learn that…
Their prime minister, our president?
Contrary to appearances, I argue that PiS is now in an ideal political position. This will be the case if he finally manages to stay in power and continue his successful policy, but ironically it may be even more so if he gives power to the opposition in the current conditions of Poland and Europe.
In any case, in the new arrangement, President Duda’s power will be much greater than before, regardless of the solution chosen. If there is a Ko government, the president will guard democracy and justice and repel the most dangerous attempts of the new government. It is easier to oppose the attempts of opponents than to mitigate the always unwise ideas of political partners. It can even be assumed that he will take over the baton from Jaroslaw Kaczynski as the new leader of the United Right, renewed and rejuvenated, which is absolutely necessary after 8 years in power. On the other hand, given the inevitably increasingly difficult social situation under Mr. Tusk’s rule, the Solidarity Union will gain new strength and dynamism by leading the protest movements.
But the president can also use his power to be the godfather and guarantor of the new political order, and thus a strong leader of the country.
A “win-win” situation for PiS
Under a Tusk government, society will quickly understand how historically wrong the coalition’s Pyrrhic “victory” represents. In this case, PiS might easily win the presidential elections, as well as the next parliamentary elections – after the dissolution of parliament.
Indeed, Tusk’s arrival to power now would be a political boon for PiS. The problem is that this is not in the interest of the state and the nation. The interest of the nation is of course much more important than the political interest. Therefore, the formation of a PiS government with a new ally, with the support of President Duda, would undoubtedly be the best solution for Poland.
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