Until recently, the government bragged that the labor market was in good shape. – Salary increase in Poland 9.8 percent. On an annual basis, the increase in employment was 2.8 percent. This means that Our labor market is in very good shape – said Mateusz Morawiecki last year.
However, the latest data from the Element recruitment system, prepared for Grant Thornton, is not optimistic. They show that in May 2022, employers posted 294,000 jobs on Poland’s 50 largest employment portals. New offers. It’s about 3 percent. Less than in May last year.
In addition, the decline is not temporary, because according to Grant Thornton, the number of shows in May decreased by 5%. compared to April. For comparison, the number of offers has grown steadily in the previous months. In addition, at this time of year there were always more offers, because employers were looking for employees for seasonal work in agriculture, tourism, construction and gastronomy.
Meanwhile, now the number of job offers is declining. According to Grant Thornton’s data, at the end of May, there were 594,000, or 59,000. Less than a month ago it was 88 thousand. Less than two months ago. Additionally, out of 39 careers that Grant Thornton has spotted, 34 have cut the number of active shows in the past two months.
This could mean that The job market begins to slow down. Surprisingly enough, he came out of the pandemic unscathed. Recently, employers even fought for employees, which was reflected in the large number of job advertisements. Now you can see the opposite direction.
The number of problems bothering companies is increasing
At the same time, feelings among businessmen deteriorated. The Polish Labor Market Barometer 2022 report from the Personnel Service shows that in March it was nearly 42 per cent. The companies feared that their situation would deteriorate.
They cited inflation and associated price hikes as the main reason for these concerns. According to the opinion, the problem was also the tax and legal problems related to the Polish system and the increased costs of running a business. Some of them indicated problems with Acquisition of the right employees and increasing wage pressure. Some feared they would be forced to cut jobs. In March, such concerns were raised, among other things, by the trade and production industry.
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Are dark clouds looming over the Polish labor market?
ukasz Komuda, a labor market expert at the Foundation for Social and Economic Initiatives, sees no cause for concern so far.
According to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the number of newly created jobs decreased in the first quarter of 2022, but only by 1 percent. For the first quarter of 2021. On the other hand, the number of jobs liquidated increased – by 17%, which may already be alarming – comments.
It is also reported that the preliminary data of the Ministry of Labor shows that in May 2022 the number of registered unemployed fell to less than 850 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to more than 5%.
Will such an indicator be preserved? – It depends on many variables and although a deterioration can be expected, the situation at the moment is somewhat corrective – he adds.
It also draws attention to Randstad’s “Employers’ Plans” study, which shows that in the next six months only 4 per cent. Companies are planning more layoffs than hiring, 25 percent. He has opposite plans.
Employment continues to rise in some industries
Robert Lisicki, an expert on the Lewiatan Confederation, is also optimistic.
There are many factors that influence the decline in job offers. This may include: With increasing costs companies make more careful decisions, incl. Reducing hiring. However, despite everything, most of them rate their situation as good – comments.
He adds that wage pressures are increasing in companies that are less willing to raise wages. They have also begun to think about savings in preparation for the economic downturn.
At the same time, the Grant Thornton report confirms that the demand in some companies for new employees is increasing. He adds that the demand for programmers and employees of shared service centers or transportation is not decreasing.
It’s hard to retain employees when investment is scarce
However, the worst mood in the construction industry. Jacob Koss, Vice President of the Budowlani Trade Union, confirms in an interview with money.pl that the situation in the sector is so bad that there may be layoffs soon. reason?
The level of investment drops significantly, if this trend continues, we will face a crisis in the construction industry. So layoffs are inevitable. This is the result of investment prevention and the flawed structure of public procurement, which we have been referring to for a long time. The situation of the industry is also getting worse due to the price of building materials which are becoming very expensive month after month. As a result, no serious company can sign long-term contracts. You can see it, among other things in road and energy investments – he comments.
He adds that there is no answer yet, When the KPO money arrives. Meanwhile, local governments no longer have funds for investments, as evidenced by the number of stalled projects. – Although I am a unionist, I understand the corporate situation. At the moment, it becomes dangerous to keep the entire crew, including workers on the construction site, – he adds.
There may be a domino effect
Kazimierz Sedlak, director of the consulting firm HR Sedlak & Sedlak, has noted the problem that concerns primarily the construction sector so far. In his opinion, this also affects The situation in the loan market. The increase in interest rates worsened the creditworthiness of the Poles and reduced the availability of loans. This is having an impact on the construction industry, especially in the new housing sector, whose sales are declining, which could put many investments on hold. In a few months, this may be evident in industry-wide indicators.
After that, a domino effect may occur, if construction dynamics begin to decline, it will also affect other industries related to this sector.
– Construction drives many sectors of the economy. If construction companies do not have orders, they will begin to lay off workers – comments Kazimierz Sedlac.
In his opinion, this promises not only layoffs, but also bankruptcies, especially among smaller developers.
The phrase “Ten like you are waiting for this job” no longer works
However, the situation in the labor market is more complex than it might seem. A deterioration in the labor market does not necessarily mean a return to the labor market. reason?
Every month you lose 20,000. working age electrodes. Our society is aging at such a rate, which has shaped our labor market in the past decade. The last increase in the working age was recorded in 2009. At the same time, the phrase “ten like you are waiting for this job” is no longer valid and it seems that the slowdown in economic growth is not enough to gain new strength – comments Łukasz Komuda.
He adds that the balance sheet for the war in Ukraine is negative for the Polish labor market. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian women appeared in our market to escape the war. On the other hand, many skilled men left Ukraine—from the construction, manufacturing, and transportation sectors—because they returned home to fight. On the other hand, many people came without qualifications or with qualifications that they could not use for reasons including: language barrier and lack of recognition of Ukrainian diplomas in Poland – sums up the expert.
Author: Agnieszka Zielińska, money.pl
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