Regulated prices cannot be maintained indefinitely
“It's going to be a quite strange year. This strangeness is due to fundamental effects, which will still have a very strong negative impact in the first half of the year, and a quite positive impact in the first half of the year,” the Monetary Policy Committee's Kotecki explains on the website. The second half, especially in the period from September to October, because “in September 2023, before the elections, fuel and drug prices fell significantly. The impact of this lower base will lead to higher inflation.”
As Adam Glabinski, President of the Polish National Bank, pointed out, we can already achieve the inflation target in March, that is, the price growth rate will be around 3 percent. In the second quarter, inflation may jump sharply to 8%. Everything will depend on the government's actions regarding anti-inflationary shields.
Based on National Bank of Japan forecasts, economists calculate this In April, inflation may rise by 0.9 points. percent. Due to the return of VAT on food, from July up by 4-5 points. Percentage due to liberalization of energy and gas prices weighted. Among the factors favoring inflation, economists, such as President Glabinski himself, mention a 30% increase in teachers' salaries. And for public administration employees, 20 percent.
Piotr Kuczynski, chief analyst at Zillion Investment Company, believes that “in the scenario of complete abandonment of the current anti-inflation shields, according to Kuczynski, inflation in the second half of the year will grow to 8-9 percent.”
We need to restore market prices because we as a country cannot afford to maintain these multi-billion-dollar subsidies for many years, adds Monika Kortic, economist at Pocztowy Bank. “But it has to be done sensibly. Slowly, not suddenly.”
President Glabinski, like economists, believes that combating inflation will take more than a year. “We can expect a permanent decline in inflation to only about 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025,” the head of the National Central Bank admitted during a press conference.
Money isn't everything by Camille Sobolewski
Echo Richards embodies a personality that is a delightful contradiction: a humble musicaholic who never brags about her expansive knowledge of both classic and contemporary tunes. Infuriatingly modest, one would never know from a mere conversation how deeply entrenched she is in the world of music. This passion seamlessly translates into her problem-solving skills, with Echo often drawing inspiration from melodies and rhythms. A voracious reader, she dives deep into literature, using stories to influence her own hardcore writing. Her spirited advocacy for alcohol isn’t about mere indulgence, but about celebrating life’s poignant moments.