May 19, 2022

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Weather for May 2022. Will the drought slow down?  Preliminary predictions

Weather for May 2022. Will the drought slow down? Preliminary predictions

There are signs of drought in Poland, and the situation is getting worse every day due to the painless and sunny weather. The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Henrik Kowalczyk, said May would decide the effects of the drought. We checked two institutions’ meteorological model calculations for this month.

As the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management noted on Wednesday, much of the country has not rained for a month now. It was emphasized that this was a “very dry” month. In some places, the last heavy rain was in late February.

This situation, also due to the almost snowless winters, contributes to the formation of drought. On Wednesday, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Henrik Kowalczyk, spoke about the drought in Poland. As he said, the current period is not important for plants, but “we are already seeing some symptoms of drought.” He added that the most important rainfall occurs during the sowing season, i.e. mid-April and May. “May is basically a crucial month,” he said.

What Americans can expect for May in Europe

According to tvnmeteo.pl synoptic, Arleta Unton-Pyziołek, in light of preliminary forecasts by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average monthly temperature in May in almost all of Poland will be above the long-term norm. In the north and south, there may be a deviation from the norm by 2 ° C (red), and in other places, except for the northwest, by 1 ° C (orange. Only in the northern part of the country should the temperature be within the normal range) therefore, This month promises to be warm.

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Average Temperature Deviation From Long-Term Standard Forecast for May 2022NOAA

Precipitation can be localized, which is a bad thing

What about precipitation? These should be normal, only in the south and in some places in the west of the country a little higher than the norm (green). As indicated by the synoptic tvnmeteo.pl Arleta Unton-Pyziołek, “This means that the month will generally be characterized by point-like storms, which in one place may bring rainfall equal to the amount of precipitation of the whole month, and in another the region a drop of water may not falling off “. He adds that according to these forecasts, “the weather in May will not improve significantly in agriculture.”

Predict deviation of average total precipitation from the long-term norm for May 2022NOAA

However, the latest calculations of the model are based on data from the initial dry period, so – as the tvnmeteo.pl weather report confirms – they affect slightly, but nevertheless, the calculations of the coming months. – The effect of drought is reflected in the calculations, so it can be assumed that the situation in May will be slightly better than what the American model indicates today – he adds.

Drive according to ECMWF

It may look similar, according to preliminary forecasts by the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecast (ECMWF). As our weather report points out, in this case, these calculations are also not optimistic for the agricultural situation.

This month in our country is characterized by a deviation of the average monthly temperature from the normal by 1-1.5 ° C, and rainfall is expected to be normal in most parts of the country. More than average rain is expected in the southeast and Pomerania (blue).

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Average Temperature Deviation From Long-Term Standard Forecast for May 2022ECMWF

Predict deviation of average total precipitation from the long-term norm for May 2022ECMWF

Main image source: shutterstock / NOAA / ECMWF