Economists' average forecasts, compiled by Macronext, assume that consumer inflation (CPI) falls in January 2024 to 4.3%. every year By 6.2 percent in December 2023. This would be the lowest reading since April 2021.
“If the flash of inflation in Poland is published (for January – ed.), we expect it to be slightly above 4 percent (base effects are a powerful weapon in the first quarter). But it is not published and we will see the results only in the middle of the month, ”- economists wrote in mBank in comment.
Inflation data for January 2024 will be released on Thursday 15 February, and will be flash only (final statistics will be presented in March, after changes to the inflation basket, so a larger than usual correction of the flash index is possible).
“The inflation scenario this year, which we presented in the December report, is still more or less valid: in January, the dynamics of the CPI will approach 4 percent, and in March it is likely to fall almost to the inflation target of 2.5 percent. And then it will rebound.” “In the following months, it will rise, ending the year near 7%. Core inflation will in turn stabilize in a range of 4.5% to 5%,” Santander economists wrote on Friday.
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Economists at Bicau Bank expressed a similar tone. “We are targeting an inflation rate of 2.5%, which is the inflation targeted by the Polish National Bank,” they noted. This is expected to happen in March, but only for a while. Then there will be a recovery, the size of which will largely depend on regulated prices – as they wrote on X (formerly Twitter). However, they are less pessimistic and assume in their forecasts that inflation in the second half of the year will only rise to about 4.5-5 percent. At the end of the year.
If inflation actually falls to 2.5% in March, it will be within the National Reserve's target level for the first time since February 2021. In a recent press conference, following the Monetary Policy Board's decision to maintain interest rates, Chairman Adam Glabinski noted Until there is a recovery. In the second half of the year, inflation is very high and reaches 7-8%, but this is on the condition that the anti-inflation shields are not extended and withdrawn completely (they are valid until mid-year in the case of energy and until the end of March in the case of food).
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