Poland’s GDP in the second quarter of 2023 fell by 0.5 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary estimates from the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
According to a quick estimate, in the second quarter of 2023, non-seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.5% in real terms. On an annual basis compared to an increase of 6.1 percent. In the same period in 2022
In the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP (at constant prices for the reference year 2015) fell in real terms by 3.7%. compared to the previous quarter and was lower than the previous year by 1.3 per cent.
Seasonally unadjusted GDP (average of constant prices for the previous year) fell by 0.5% in real terms. compared to the same period of the previous year.
Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes expected GDP to decline 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023. y/o
Analysts talk about a recession
“Well, it’s a recession (although in our view it continued from Q2 2022). GDP in Q2 fell 0.5% yoy (-3.7% qoq). And that’s the first bad news. And the news The good news is that the next quarters will be higher. And finally, a joke: the graph is already showing seasonally adjusted data,” mBank Research analysts wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
In contrast, analysts from Pekao Analysis Bureau indicated in their comment that they expect the economy to grow at a level of 0.4 percent over the year. “As we expected, the second quarter turned out to be weaker than the first. The Polish economy contracted by 0.5% year-on-year (in the first quarter -0.3% year-on-year). In our opinion, over the course of the year, the Polish economy would have grown by 0.4%. – they wrote.
Commenting on the GDP results for the second quarter of 2023, the Polish Economic Institute stated that “the poor results are associated with a consumer recession – household spending was 1.5% less than last year. The economy was mainly driven by corporate investment and net exports.”.
Data is still subject to change
The Central Bureau of Statistics states that “the data is preliminary and may be subject to revision, according to the revision policy applied in the quarterly national accounts, at the time of making the first regular estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2023, which will be published on August 31.”
According to a quick estimate, the dynamics of real GDP in the second quarter of 2023 was 99.5.
Main image source: stock struggle
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