The National Bank has surprised even economists. New data from the Polish economy

The Polish economy was in recession in the third quarter, but companies are counting on an immediate improvement in the situation – this seems to be the main conclusion of the “Szybki NBP Monitor”. It is a document published once every three months in which the Polish Central Bank analyzes and forecasts the situation of non-financial institutions in Poland, based on data from the Central Statistical Office and inter-firm surveys.

Hope for high demand, eyes abroad

According to “Szybki Monitoring NBP”, companies expect, among other things: a recovery in domestic demand already in the current quarter. In the following chapters, the fate of Polish companies will depend not only on the domestic consumer, but also on the development of the economic situation among our main partners. commercial. Polish business generally depends on increased demand from abroad.

The Monitoring also indicates that companies expect to reduce the difficulty of passing on higher costs to the prices of their goods and services. This is bad news from an inflation point of view, although at the same time it is somewhat understandable in the context of the expected increase in demand (i.e. the expectation that we will loosen the consumer belt a little). This can also be seen in other parts of the document. Businesses’ price expectations have increased, and more businesses expect inflation to increase or stabilize (rather than to decline further).

The corporate sector has internalized the issue of lower inflation and there is a slight increase in corporate price expectations

– Comment from economists from BICA Bank.

To illustrate, experts from Pekau write about their surprise at the publication of the “Szybki Monitor” by the National Bank of Japan, because the central bank always does it unexpectedly.

Returning to the content of the NBP analysis, it also shows that the percentage of companies anticipating wage increases in the last quarter of 2023 has decreased significantly, and fewer companies than before are also planning wage increases in the next 12 months. However, as economists from ING Bank Śląski point out, these levels are clearly higher than long-term averages. They add that the average amount of salary increases scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2023 has increased. This means that fewer companies want to increase wages, but if they do, they will do so aggressively.

. Source: NBP

Wage pressure remains high, but its transmission to nominal wage increases is weakening. In other words, wage dynamics may fall below 10% next year. Despite the increase in the minimum wage

– Comments by Marcin Klocznik from the Polish Economic Institute.

In some sectors it is good, in others it is bad

The situation also varies clearly between industries.

Companies providing business services and producing intermediate goods still rate their current economic situation as very poor, but companies in the construction, capital goods and consumer goods sectors indicated that the situation is improving (although the consumer goods sector still rates it as weak)

– Note by economists from Santander Bank. She points out that investment plans also remain diversified. – Large companies were very optimistic, but small companies were pessimistic – she adds and concludes:

The results of the “Szybki Monitoring” survey support our expectations for further economic recovery, while maintaining inflation pressure at a high level.

National Bank of Japan data also show that after recent declines, the proportion of companies “with high exposure to bankruptcy risks and formulating negative forecasts for the economic situation, demand, employment and investments” rose slightly again.

The highest share of companies with such exposure occurs in the energy sector and among companies producing consumer durable goods

– The Central Bank reported.

Next week, Poland’s third-quarter GDP data will be announced

Next week – on Tuesday 14 November – we will get the first data from the Central Statistical Office on Poland’s GDP in the third quarter. This would be what is called quick respect. Forecasts indicate that for the first time this year we will see positive annual dynamics – that is, GDP growth on an annual basis. In the first quarter, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in real GDP by 0.3 percent, and in the second quarter by 0.6 percent. A much better result is also expected on a quarterly basis. In the second – compared to the first – the GDP decreased in real terms by 1.4%.

September’s economic data – on industrial production, construction production, retail sales, and business climate surveys – were promising and gave hope for economic recovery in the coming quarters.

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