Reaching the inflation target is a long way off, but with cautious interest rate cuts

At the next meeting, which will be held in early November, the Monetary Policy Board will have new forecasts for the National Bank of Poland. This is an important document, published three times a year, that shows the path predicted by economists, including: the dynamics of inflation and GDP. Monetary Policy Committee members make decisions on interest rates largely on their basis.

I believe that this forecast will show the effects of interest rate cuts in September and October, and this is something new compared to the previous forecast. We will see to what extent these cuts will lead to inflation not falling or even – perhaps – increasing in the long term,” said Ludwik Kotecki, a member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC). According to him, the inflation path from the forecast may show that the CPI will not reach the target in 2025, but only in 2026.

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