- The problem starts when we look at the media layer. It is hard not to get the impression that the PiS government is making a lot of noise around the above issues
- Our authorities, on the one hand, act firmly (and this is correct), but on the other hand, unfortunately, they also act loudly, which is a grave mistake for the sake of change.
- Public information buzz about each border reinforcement means that Russians and Belarusians are more likely to try to mock the Polish authorities.
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Russia, as can be seen very clearly in Ukraine, is able to repel the Ukrainian counterattack, but it does not seem to be able to conduct large-scale offensive activities on its own. It certainly is not able to win the war with Ukraine.
Even if Moscow achieved some successes on the battlefield, it would not change the overall picture of the situation. This fact alone means that the probability of an attack on a NATO member state (not only Poland, but also Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) is close to zero.
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How do you get out of the war?
There are also many indications that Moscow is becoming aware that the war must end somehow. Of course, this does not mean that it will happen soon, although, on the other hand, such a scenario cannot be ruled out either.
A quick end to the war could happen, for example, as a result of a palace coup in Russia, or as a result of the sudden and unexpected success of informal conversations, which, as is known, take forever. Place between the United States and Russia.
Escalation in order to calm down
The problem is that Russia knows only one form of negotiation, which is the escalation of tensions and the multiplication of demands, which Moscow is supposed to reduce and reduce tensions in the hope of getting more than it should, given the real situation.
The above method, drawn from the traditions of Soviet diplomacy, makes it impossible to reject the hypothesis that the Russians, in cooperation with the Belarusians, are exacerbating the situation on the border with Poland not only in order to destabilize our country before the elections.
If so, two outcomes follow. The optimistic conclusion boils down to the fact that it is certainly not about war (which neither Russia nor Belarus has the strength to undertake and which is meaningless if provocations are a means of negotiating with the West or a means of sowing chaos in Poland).
The pessimistic conclusion is that if the purpose of the provocation is to improve its negotiating position, then given that this objective has not yet been achieved, the Russians may go further than they have done so far.
It is precisely for this reason that we must take very seriously the possibility of further incidents, such as airspace violations, but also others, such as attempted border intrusions by migrants from Africa and the Middle East, which could involve armed members of the Wagner Group who could try to provoke shoot.
Unfortunately, a small-scale act of sabotage in Poland cannot be ruled out. Such a scenario can be indicated by the increased activity of Russian services in the vicinity of Polish critical infrastructure facilities. It is also possible to try to kidnap a Polish officer or soldier from the border area, as the Russians did once, in 2014, when they kidnapped an Estonian special services officer, Estonia Kofer, from the territory of Estonia.
Be firm but reserved
All of the above means that although Poland is not in danger of war, at the same time strengthening the borders, which – let us add – also means closing them, that is, preventing illegal crossings of immigrants. Not only legal, but also necessary from the point of view of national security. In this sense, the actions of the Polish authorities are correct.
The problem starts when we look at the media layer. It is hard not to get the impression that the PiS government is making a lot of noise around the above issues. In fact, increasing security requires, on the one hand, to fortify the borders and send additional forces there, and at the same time send secret signals to Moscow and Minsk that we intend to play hard with them.
In other words, as Americans have long done, we must act earnestly but say little. Our authorities, on the one hand, act tough (and this is correct), but on the other hand, unfortunately, they also act loudly, which is a huge mistake for change.
The latter gives the impression of a procedure dictated by internal political calculations, that is, an attempt by the Law and Justice party to present itself as a party staunchly defending Poland and the Poles.
The problem is that loud and public information about each border reinforcement means that Russians and Belarusians are more inclined to try to mock the Polish authorities. In other words, by speaking too much, state authorities significantly undermine the positive effects of what they do in what is called real.
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