— At the moment, it appears that with energy and gas prices frozen in the first months of next year, inflation may be lower than expected in the National Central Bank's November forecast. However, in the long term, price dynamics are subject to uncertainty because, on the one hand, they will depend on the pace of the expected economic recovery and, on the other hand, on financial and regulatory factors, including VAT rates on food and energy. Marta Keightley said during a meeting of the House of Representatives Public Finance Committee on “Monetary Policy Assumptions for 2024.”
As noted by the Vice President of the Polish National Bank, inflation in Poland in 2024 will be much lower than in 2023. – The data received indicate that despite the noticeable economic recovery, demand pressure in the Polish economy remains low, which in Conditions: Weak economic conditions and a decline in inflationary pressures abroad will contribute to a further decline in domestic inflation. As a result, inflation in 2024 is expected to be much lower than this year, Kightley said.
The draft budget for next year assumes an average annual inflation of 6.6%. In 2024, it will decrease from about 11.5%. In 2023 and by up to 14.4 percent in 2022
As the National Bank of Poland reported in November, consumer inflation – according to the Polish National Bank's central forecast path – will reach 5%. In the first quarter of 2024. Irenius Dabrowski of the Monetary Policy Board recently said that At the end of February next year, the inflation rate will range between 3.4 percent. and 3.9 percent
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics two weeks ago, the consumer inflation rate reached 6.6%. On an annual basis in November 2023, the same as in October. Compared to the previous month, prices of goods and services increased by 0.7%.
In December, the Minister of Finance signed a regulation extending the implementation of the 0% interest rate. Goods and services tax (VAT) on food items. The regulation stipulates that the reduced price will apply until March 31, 2024. Finance Minister Andrzej Domansky later informed that it is possible to extend the frozen energy prices until the second half of the year. Next year's analysis will be done at the end of the first quarter of 2024.
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NBP
According to the National Central Bank's November forecast, the consumer inflation rate – according to the central path of inflation expectations – will reach 11.4%. In 2023, 4.6 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent reported by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in 2025 (compared to 11.9%, 5.2% and 3.6% respectively for these years in the July forecast). CPI inflation will return to a range of deviations from the inflation target set by the National Bank of Japan – which is set at 2.5%. +/— 1 percentage point – at the end of the forecast horizon, the balance of forecast uncertainties indicates a close and uniform distribution of risks to GDP dynamics and upward asymmetry of CPI inflation risks.
In 2023, consumer inflation – according to the central path of inflation expectations – will reach 6.7%. y / y in the fourth quarter of this year and in 2024 will be – respectively – in the following quarters: 5%, 4.4%, 4.6% each. In the third quarter, fourth quarter, and in 2025: 4.2%, 3.7%, 3.6%. And 3.5 percent
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Gus
The November forecast from the NECMOD model covers the period from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2025 – the starting point of the forecast is the third quarter of 2023. The forecast is prepared on the assumption that the BOJ interest rates, including the rate The reference of 5.75 percent, taking into account data available until October 23, 2023 (deadline).
See also; Inflation at 4%, with rates reduced. Economic forecasts for 2024
As Jacek Kotlowski, Deputy Director of the Department of Economic Analysis at the National Budget Bank, stated, a return to 5%. VAT rates will increase inflation by 0.9 percentage points. in 2024 and will not have any impact on inflation in 2025. He pointed out that food prices are the factor that farms strongly consider when formulating their inflation expectations.
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