In their opinion, the total borrowing requirements for the state budget will amount to almost 400 billion zlotys and will be the highest since 2010, when it was now officially planned 120 billion zlotys less.
The total borrowing requirement is the amount required to finance a deficit, repay loans, or buy back bonds previously issued by a country.
As noted by the economists at Credit Agricole, according to the draft budget law, the total borrowing needs of the state budget will amount to 269.6 billion PLN in 2023, in relation to GDP by 8.1 percent. It will be the highest since 2016.
“It is worth noting, however, that the draft budget does not take into account the implementation of certain expenditures, and the probability of their realization in 2023 is significant in our opinion,” the report stated.
How does PiS plan to win the 2023 parliamentary elections? The list of expenses is too large
what is he talking about? The draft budget does not, inter alia, provide for: Extension of the anti-inflation shieldAnd the scenario in which the government will not extend it is unlikely by experts. as they say Without the shield, inflation will remain above 10% in 2023 “which is a difficult scenario for the government given the parliamentary elections.”
The cost of extending the anti-inflation shield for 2023 alone is 33 billion PLN (NBP estimates). And as the economists at Credit Agricole claim, these won’t be the only additional government expenditures that won’t be found in budget plans.
- In their opinion “As part of the election campaign, the government will decide to award the 14th and 15th pensions in 2023”When the budget provides for financing only the so-called thirteen. The fourteenth and fifteenth pensions will cost the state 23 billion PLN.
- In addition, we can expect the benefits under the Family 500+ program to be valued at PLN 700 per child (15 billion PLN).
- In conditions of high energy prices, the government is likely to decide to freeze electricity and gas prices for households, which will entail additional budget expenditures of PLN 23 billion and PLN 13 billion, respectively.
- In combination with the carbon supplement (11.5 billion PLN), the costs of these protection measures will be about PLN 47 billion in 2023.
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See also: Inflation and public debt are rising, and investment is scarce. ‘We’re all going to feel the hard way’
Although – as economists emphasize – it is difficult to predict in detail whether and in what form individual ideas will be presented, as experts predict – together they will be Another 120 billion PLN of expenditures, which have not yet been included in official government announcements. As a result, the total borrowing needs will reach 389.4 billion PLN and 11.7 percent. Gross domestic product. So they will be the largest since 2010.
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