We notice an increase in the zloty price on Friday. The US dollar is down three cents and is the cheapest since mid-November 2021. You also have to pay less for the Euro, the Swiss Franc and the British Pound.
We’re after the rate hike and President Adam Glapinsky’s conference and it’s pretty clear now that we’re in a rate hike cycle, which the market already knows, and the president clearly admitted that during the last press conference. During the conference, the NBP chief also indicated that there was scope for more cost-of-money increases, said Maciej Madij, an analyst at Dom Maklerski TMS Brokers.
The Monetary Policy Board, during its meeting on Tuesday, decided to raise the interest rates on NBP by 50 basis points. As a result, the benchmark key interest rate will be 2.25 percent as of Wednesday. The Governor of the National Bank of Poland and at the same time the Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee said during the press conference Wednesday – before the release of preliminary inflation data in December – that taking into account the current expectations for the development of the situation, the Board will urge another rate hike, by at least 50 basis point.
– From the perspective of the PLN, this is clearly positive news, which, as we can see, significantly devalues our currency this week. The uptrend line in the EUR / PLN has been broken, which opens the way for further strengthening of our currency – he added.
Zloty Quotes – Predictions
Midge also noted that the communication between the Monetary Policy Board and the market has changed to become more transparent, and that the hawkish stance shown in its message will support the zloty in the medium term. – In my opinion, the MPC’s connection to the market has also changed and its hawkish stance is clearly visible, which of course will be a factor supporting the further appreciation of the zloty. In the short term, due to the significant strengthening of the zloty in recent days, the risk of some rebound (weakening of the zloty) increases, but in the medium term I assume that the zloty has a chance of further strengthening – the analyst predicts.
Krzysztof Paulak of currencyomat.pl drew attention to the preliminary inflation data in Friday’s comment. “The local currency is supported by today’s reading of CPI inflation in December is a result of 8.6%, while the reading in November of 7.8% makes the zloty stronger. This result means that the MPC will continue to raise interest rates and this is a clear argument. To buy PLN “- said Pawlak.
Preliminary data of the Central Bureau of Statistics show that the prices of consumer goods and services in December 2021 increased by 8.6%. every year.
The Euro, the Dollar, the Franc and the Pound – Quotes
On Friday evening, you had to pay 4.54 euros for the euro. The European currency is the cheapest since October 2021.
The cost of the US dollar is PLN 4. This is the lowest level since mid-November 2021. The euro also strengthened on Friday against the dollar. According to Messige Madge, a weaker US currency is weaker labor market data. In December, the US non-farm sector increased by 199,000. Jobs. He noted in the commentary that “the result is well below expectations (400,000 jobs), and also devastatingly lower than the ADP report (800,000)”.
In the CHF / PLN pair, we note the lowest levels since November last year. You had to pay about 4.35 zlotys for the franc.
The British pound costs more than PLN 5.43.
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