US elections and real estate prices.  There is one main reason Donald Trump won: the economy


Despite the unemployment rate falling to a 54-year low and the stock market setting records, voters view Trump as better at handling the economy. (39% agree with this view, and 33% of respondents to the February Reuters/Ipsos poll disagree.) Despite the decline in the overall inflation rate, a large portion of voters remain dissatisfied with Biden's economic policies, with real estate prices proving to be a particular cause of dissatisfaction.

Nearly eight in 10 Americans said 2023 would be a bad time to buy a home, the highest number since Gallup began asking the question in the 1970s. According to a February survey of 3,000 homeowners and renters by real estate data provider Redfinover, Half of Americans say housing affordability will affect how they vote. This is bad news for Biden. According to the National Association of Home Builders, only 38 percent of homes sold in the last half of 2023 were financially affordable for a family earning the median income in the United States (which is $96,300 annually). This is the worst result since the organization began tracking the statistics in 2012. According to a Redfin poll, nearly two-thirds of Americans say the inability to purchase real estate puts Biden's economy in a negative light.

Most American renters don't believe they can afford a home. Only 18 percent of those who told the National Multifamily Housing Council last year that they aspire to one day own property are actively looking. In 2021, the percentage of researchers reached 21%. Meanwhile, according to Zillow, rents have risen an average of 30% since the pandemic.


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Joe Biden's last chance? The President announces relief

President Biden is clearly aware of the situation. Last week he proposed tax breaks of up to PLN 10,000. dollars to first property buyers and sellers of so-called starter homes. He also unveiled a plan to build more than two million new homes.


Experts say that lowering interest rates by even one percentage point would provide a psychological boost that could stimulate sales growth. However, the Fed appears reluctant to adjust to the situation, and bad inflation news this week has pushed economists' estimates of the earliest rate cut date back to June. According to Leniger, the cut will show that interest rates are heading lower, and when that happens, he advises buyers to count on refinancing later in the form of cheaper interest rates.

Real estate crisis in the United States of America

Various forms of housing crisis are occurring across the country.

At Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, the taste of jet fuel lingers in the crisp Montana air as private planes idle on the runway. The average price of a single-family home in the area is a record $1.2 million, and locals blame the high price on “Californians” who fly in to visit ski resorts and end up buying second homes.. Among them are billionaire Bill Gates, Justin Timberlake, and Tom Brady.

Home prices in Bozeman have soared thanks to an influx of out-of-state buyers fleeing the COVID-19 pandemic, and even today about half of homes are being purchased with cash — which is higher than the nationwide average because in the entire U.S., only one home is purchased in Bozeman. – A third of buyers purchasing real estate exceed their mortgage loan. It seems that interest rates should not matter to these buyers. But they do, notes Everdown Charles, a Keller Williams Montana real estate agent and Montana native. — There are a lot of buyers standing on the sidelines. Even if the monthly installment issue does not directly concern them, they wonder whether they should come in or not. Williams says this situation affects the way they think.

In Jackson Hole, Wyoming, another haven for wealthy buyers who have fled cities during the pandemic, the market is experiencing a severe drought, according to Devon Fehman of Engel & Volkers. Just 330 homes were sold in Teton County last year, down from a peak of 1,500 sales in 2010. That's a staggering 70 percent of buyers paying cash, and the average sales price was $5.5 million last year.


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This has led to serious problems for people who do not have such funds. – It is difficult for our local workforce to purchase a home. Is it the tipping point when we no longer have service workers in our community and the people who come to live here can't go out to eat or mow their front yard? It's really hard for working-class people to make a living here, Fehman says.

According to Freddie Mac, 4.8 million homes were sold last year, the lowest number since 2011. Existing home sales, versus new homes, were 4.1 million, the lowest level in 30 years. This reflects lower supply, not lower demand. There are 2.7 buyers for every listing in the country — a dream for sellers, but a nightmare for buyers, says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

As a result, the market is hot in many densely populated areas, not just in affluent cities like Jackson Hole. In Phoenix, single-family home prices have risen about 40% since 2019 — up to $430 per square foot — while household income has increased just 6 percent. In 2019-2022. On Long Island, New York, the median home price last month was $645,000. dollars, an increase of 12%. Compared to last February, according to Redfin. The number of homes on the market in the Dallas-Fort Worth area has fallen by more than a third from its pre-pandemic highs in 2019, according to Realtor.com.

Forecast for 2024

Darryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, says the outlook for the rest of this year is mixed and “stocks… [nieruchomości] It will remain small.” However Interest rate cuts in June 'could provide a nice boost to homebuyers' purchasing power just before the election'.

A one percentage point reduction in mortgage rates means a home buyer can purchase a home worth about $40,000. slot. Even greater if he is able to manage a fixed monthly installment of about PLN 3,000. Dollars, Fairweather calculates.


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Economist Lautz says the permanent way to balance supply and demand is to build more homes. This view is echoed across the country. But there is widespread skepticism about whether communities across the country will allow more buildings. So it remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will be able to deliver on its promise to start building two million new homes.

The key now is the baby boomers. If enough of them downsize from their current homes, it will create a ripple effect, ultimately freeing up inventory for first-time buyers entering the market.

“How long people stay home has changed,” Lautz says. – It was six or seven years. It's ten o'clock now. People are holding on to their homes and building equity.

Kent, a real estate broker from South Carolina, falls into this camp. We may never see mortgage interest rates as high as 2.35% again, so why give it up for a higher rate? Additionally, Kent has more than just a financial reason to stay in his old home in Charleston.

“I love my neighbors,” he admits.

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