For several months, Russia has been actively working to withdraw its forces and technologies to the border with Ukraine. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warns that Russia could attack at any time. Ukrainian authorities calm down and ask not to panic. They ensure that the situation is under control.
The attack on Ukraine in February?
According to Ukrainian and foreign intelligence services, the attack could take place in January or February. It could have happened earlier, but the problem for the Russian troops is the mild winter, which makes the movement of heavy military equipment difficult.
The attack may also be parallel to the start of the Russian-Belarusian exercises, To be held in mid-February. According to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, the states will draw up a “certain plan” to confront the powers of the West (the Baltic states, Poland) and the South (Ukraine).
Russia can attack from three sides
Both Russia and Belarus did not indicate the number of soldiers and military equipment that will participate in the exercises. However, according to the estimates of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), the size of the Russian army will be from 8000 to 15,000 personnel. At the same time, there are about 127,000 people on the border with Ukraine. Russian soldiers.
According to American intelligence, in the event of an invasion, the number of soldiers would quickly increase to 175,000. As they note, the Russian army besieged Ukraine on three sides – from Russia, Belarus, and from the south – from the territory of the Russian-occupied Crimea.
Attack scenarios revealed
Reuters has written about as many as four possible attack scenarios being studied by Western experts. The first is the growing tension in the Donbass. The Kremlin might use the rebels to attack the Ukrainian army and then use the resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces as a pretext to launch a large-scale invasion.
The second scenario is a strike in the Crimea. According to the director of the Polish consulting company Rochan, Konrad Muzycki, the attack from the occupied peninsula will allow Russian troops to occupy the lands along the Dnieper River. In addition, it will allow you to control the channel that supplies the peninsula with water.
It is also seen that Russia can use a multi-attack tactic and enter Ukraine from all possible directions – Crimea, the unrecognized people’s republics of the Luhansk and Donetsk states, and from the territory of Belarus. Western experts believe in this case that the Russian armed forces will use the method of blitzkrieg.
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