There may not be a Russian attack

The former commander of the ground forces, General Waldemar Skrzybczak, is the guest of Piotr Zychowicz in the new episode of the Historia Realna YouTube channel. The topic of the conversation was the current situation on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian war. One topic of conversation concerns the expected major Russian offensive in the Donbass.

Will there be an attack?

Some analysts believe that the process is already underway, although it is in its initial stage and its scope is clearly limited. Others claim that the current Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions are not part of a new offensive, and that its prospects are receding due to the thaw next spring.

– In general, everyone, including me, has been expecting a major Russian offensive since December. I was convinced that the Russian commanders, using the art of war, would strike in the chosen direction in order to break through the Ukrainian defense and conquer the Donbass. It is clear that these strikes, which were carried out with such a massive effort in six directions, are losing the potential that the Russians have accumulated since October. It’s melting, Skrzypczak said.

The military stated that “it may turn out that this attack will never happen”. – And this is a breakthrough because it shows that the Russians are losing their ability to carry out an offensive operation at the strategic level. For it was supposed to be a breakthrough with the forces that the Russians were gathering, in the crowd of recruits among them. It is melting, and the Russians are constantly moving to the front those formations on which they were preparing for a major offensive, – he pointed out.

He also added, if they take forces and units to the front to get out of it, because they have to, this means that the potential of the forces that are ready to attack is constantly decreasing.

packing? Russia has no reserves

Skrzypczak mentioned that there was a lot of talk that there would be another mobilization in Russia. – The Russians, what they can muster, they have already mustered, they have brought out. What they are training at the moment are the remnants of the Sanctuary that they trained in previously. The Russians for several years, maybe several dozen, have not trained more reservists. Therefore, the Russians have no one to rally. They can still call up more recruits who will be integrated into the army, but they will appear on the battlefield no later than this fall, and they will no longer be full-fledged soldiers, but they will be cannon fodder, Gen. Skrzypczak said.

Skrzypczak argued that in the context of a broader offensive, the Russians are running out of potential not only in equipment, but also in personnel. In his opinion, there is no need to talk about another mobilization, because Moscow has practically no one to turn to. – They do not have trained reservists who could be recruited into the army and sent to the front. In my opinion, this is the turning point – which will happen in a month or two – when the ability to conduct an offensive operation will run out for the Russians.

Now there is a battle for time on both sides. This is when I hope Ukrainians will benefit from the help of the West. They would mobilize a dozen or so brigades and break the Russian defense in one specific direction. We need to create conditions for this process. Tanks and IFVs alone will not win. Ukrainians can earn this process by working in all possible areas. Among other things, the resistance movement, diversion and sabotage activities, that is, everything that is supposed to weaken the will of Russian soldiers to fight. Ukrainians will not expel the Russians from their land if the Russians defend themselves to the last soldier. General Skrzypczak’s assessment they do not and will not have such power.

The military man went on to explain why recapturing the Ukrainian lands occupied by the Russians would be so difficult and expensive, if it was to happen.

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