Grain prices.  Economists on the impact of the September 15 decision

The question of extending or suspending the ban on four agricultural products to the frontline countries, including Poland, raises many emotions. Today is September 15, a day that has been widely discussed and treated as if the existence or non-existence of Poland, and Ukraine as well, depended on this decision. We would like to remind you that the process of transit of these raw materials is still ongoing.

What do experts think about the changes related to September 15? We asked economists who deal with agricultural markets on a daily basis. The truth is that the prices in our stores are very low and have certainly decreased in recent weeks. They are also not high on the Mativ exchange, which translates to our buy prices. At the close of the stock exchange on Wednesday, the price of corn quoted for November on the Paris Stock Exchange was 214 euros per ton (about 954 PLN per ton), the price of wheat for December was 242 euros per ton (about 1079 PLN per ton), and in November the price of rapeseed was 446 euros. , 25 EUR/ton (about PLN 1990/ton).

Will grain prices fall after September 15, 2023?

We do not expect the decision to extend the import ban to have any impact on grain prices in Poland. We did not notice such an effect after its launch in the second quarter of this year. It is true that a decline in imports from Ukraine in the second quarter of 2023 contributed to Poland achieving a record surplus in grain trade in the 2022/2023 season, but it is global conditions that have had a decisive influence on price volatility in recent months – says .pl farmer, Dr. Mariusz Dziulski from the Economic Analysis Department of PKO Polski Bank.

He adds that maintaining the ban will likely be evident in data on Ukrainian grain trade, as Poland was one of the most important sales markets for Ukraine last season.

– However, the assessment of the situation should take into account the issue of strengthening other export channels of Ukrainian agricultural products, including developed transit through Poland, as well as the decline in the export potential of Ukraine in the 2023/2024 season, which results from expectations of lower production and a significant decline in Grain stocks in this country at the end of the 2022/2023 season – adds Dr. Dziwulski.

What does another economist think about this?

We asked Dr. Jacob Olibra from Crédit Agricole’s Macroeconomic Analytics Department for his opinion.

– In my opinion, regardless of whether Ukrainian imports are suspended or not, it will not have a significant impact on prices. First of all, since we have a completely different market situation (high supply and low prices), Ukraine has much less export potential and focuses on sales via Romania, which also sees benefits in this and invests in infrastructure. Moreover, the recent weakness of the Polish Zloty has improved the competitiveness of Polish grains, says specialist Dr. Olebra.

What about Ukrainian grain trade?

We would like to remind you that at the beginning of this week another market analyst commented on his blog: Mirosław Marciniak from InfoGrain.
He wrote, as we reported on, that from a purely commercial point of view, we are not at risk of a repeat of what happened last year. He presented several arguments here to justify his thesis. Among other things, the fact that global prices, and therefore also prices in the country, are much lower, and domestic supply is so large that companies are not interested in importing from Ukraine.

Marciniak on grain imports from Ukraine: We are not in danger of repeating what happened last year

– In the case of rapeseed, fat mills contract grains for delivery in December and January, which shows that they do not need to look for raw materials outside our borders. Let me remind you that last fall they had problems getting local rapeseed, despite a very good harvest. The media hype surrounding the Ukrainian pills also had an impact. Most companies today do not want to expose themselves to public stigma, so given the uncompetitiveness of Ukrainian grains, they will be less interested in sourcing raw materials from outside our eastern borders, Marciniak said.

Prime Minister: On September 15, either the European Commission will close the borders to grains from Ukraine, or we will close them ourselves.


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