Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s words, I spoke during the Social Dialogue Council meeting on Monday, caused a storm. – I am with the energy companies for a minimum profit next year, because I am on the social side, on the side of all Poles. I want to limit investments to those most necessary. Even after covering costs, depreciation and investment plans, there is still a small profit – said Morawiecki. – I will not regret trading, distribution or manufacturing companies. The energy sector as a whole should approach zero plus – added.
After these statements The lists of the largest energy companies rose. The valuation of the Polska Grupa Energetyczna exchange fell by 7% in just one day, Tauron by 8%, and Enea by 9%. The energy industry experts we asked were surprised that the prime minister had dared send such a direct message. Tragic property control. Not surprisingly, for this reason, state-controlled energy companies are listed on the stock exchange at a significant discount. The Prime Minister cannot determine the profits of the company. He forgot that the state treasury is only one of the contributors to the concerns – says one of our interlocutors, who wants to remain anonymous.
It turns out that The “zero plus profit” vision for energy companies is already realized and no more taxes are needed. This is the analysis of Paweł Puchalski, Santander BM analyst. In his forecast for 2023, he predicted that the results of the largest domestic energy companies would be close to zero. This means that Multi-billion dollar industry profit forecast a few months ago Went to the trash.
– I’m assuming PGE and Enea will end next year with a slight net loss, and Tauron’s score will be slightly above the streak. On the one hand, we have strong inflation pressure On the one hand the cost, and on the other hand, the government introduces various regulations aimed at reducing the revenues of energy companies, which may include one-time provisions that will reduce the results of next year – explains Puchalsky.
And for Michai Kozak, an analyst at DM Trigon, it’s clear that the domestic energy sector has come under enormous pressure. We treat the Prime Minister’s statement as an indication that changes in energy prices in the market equilibrium and the imposition of a revenue ceiling will limit the results of power generation. Changing the bonus distribution model may also have a negative impact on segment results, compared to the current model. However, let’s remember that At the beginning of the year, the generation sector will be taken out of the power companies anyway. The end results for these companies may be close to a “zero plus” letter. I wouldn’t assume additional profits taxation for the energy sector, simply because there won’t be a surplus in profits next year – Cusack claims.
Freezer windfall tax
Plan an additional burden on energy companies, but on a larger scale – on all large companies – Tax on excess profits (the so-called windfall tax)was the Ministry of State Assets, headed by Jacek Sasin. However, the idea fell through and, as our information shows, it will not be developed in the near future. – The project went to the freezer – A source close to the government tells us.
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However, Michai Kozak does not rule out that the idea will appear again, but with regard to the fuel sector, including Orlin, which, given the rise in gas and oil prices and refining margins, may show very good results for another year within one year. Row. On the other hand, he points out that the fuel group is facing record capital expenditures, which should be an argument against additional taxation. – The elections are approaching, and under these conditions the high profits of state-owned enterprises will be striking. At the moment, however, the signals from the government on this issue are very inconsistent, and there is great chaos And I wouldn’t be too attached to individual data – DM Trigon analyst concludes.
In the case of the energy industry The regulations just introduced are already stifling corporate results. Electricity price freeze law It imposes price limits on power plants, and if the producer sells power above these limits, the surplus will be paid into a special fund through which the price-freezing mechanism will be fully financed for households, local governments and small and medium-sized businesses. The government maintains that price ceilings will be set “to cover reasonable costs for market participants as well as retain investment incentives”. This is confirmed by experts, and even the energy companies themselves The new regulations will have an impact on investment plans in the industry in the coming months.
Prohibited Investments
Analysts have no doubt that the subsequent interventions in the energy market introduced by the government will translate into investment plans for the domestic energy sector. The industry is currently implementing a program to expand green facilities and energy networks, without which it will continue RES . development would not be possible. The industry wants to spend at least 130 billion PLN on investments in distribution networks by 2030. This means that annual expenses should increase by a third. However, it may be difficult to find funds for such large projects next year.
– Assuming low profits means low cash flow, and this obviously limits investment opportunities in the coming year for Polish energy companies. This is why In my opinion, a difficult year 2023 could mean delaying investment in many sectors for at least a year. Unless European money is activated, but the issue is entirely in the hands of the Polish government – says Bauwe Pochalski of Santander PM.
We asked the Polish Energy Group to assess the situation. – PGE recognizes that government actions in times of global energy crisis are aimed at maintaining acceptable levels Electricity prices for the inhabitants of Poland. Our ambitious short-term investment goals must take into account the current legal framework. He stressed that the overarching goal of PGE is to maintain the security of energy and heat supplies Konrad Moroz, a spokesperson for PGE.
PGE plans not only to develop the renewable energy and distribution sectors, but also In the long term, it also wants to build a nuclear power plant with its partners. Will he find a way to do that? – I expect that the way to get money for large investments may be, for example, subsequent issues of shares. I can imagine a number of PGE stocks directed, say, to Orlen, or nuclear chargesWhich we’ll see in electric bills – predicts DM Trigon’s Michel Cusack.
Author: Barbara Oksińska, Business Insider Polska
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