Consumer Prices (CPI – Consumer Price Index) in the US in November rose 0.8%. In terms of m/m, it increased year on year by 6.8 per cent. The US Department of Labor said in a press release. + 0.7% expected. mdm and +6.8 percent. xy.
Core inflation, an indicator that does not take into account fuel and food prices, rose by 0.5%. mdm and 4.9 percent. xy. +0.5% expected. mdm and +4.9 percent. xy.
A month ago, the headline CPI rose 0.9 percent. mdm and an annualized rate of 6.2 percent. The core CPI rose 0.6% the previous month. mdm and 4.6 percent. xy.
Assume the median forecast is a 0.7% increase. Compared to October, and 6.8 percent year on year.
Today’s data will confirm the Fed’s concerns that price growth dynamics are not as temporary as originally expected. Today’s data may reinforce market expectations (already high) that the Fed will decide next week to speed up the “taper” process.
The situation in the labor market is good. Open workplaces are at a standard level. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s.
The unemployment rate is also heading towards pre-pandemic levels. A higher reading may support the US dollar again and after a shallow correction (very close to the October spread), the major currency pair is likely to head south again.
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The gross domestic product of the United States will increase by 5.6% in 2021, compared to a decrease of 3.5%. In 2020, and in 2022 it will rise by 3.8%. GDP growth in the third quarter was lower than our previous forecast due to the negative impact of the epidemic (particularly the coronavirus delta variable) on economic activity.
However, October and November data indicate a renewed acceleration of economic growth at the start of the fourth quarter. Our forecasts for GDP growth for 2022 have been revised downward due to the impact of the Omikron coronavirus variable and higher inflation, which will lead to a decline in consumption.
At the same time, we see an increased risk of more severe monetary policy tightening by the Fed, which consists of a faster pace of phasing out the asset purchase program, which will create room for an early start of the rate-raising cycle. Until mid 2022.
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