Exactly a year ago, ZUS boasted of the record-breaking good standing of the Social Insurance Fund. In the first quarter of 2023, contributions paid to ZUS were covered 86,4 Proc. Expenses, i.e. interest paid (this is called system efficiency). now The situation is also stable, but it is getting worsewhich results, among other things, from the latest forecasts made by ZUS.
— Throughout 2023, benefit payment coverage from contributions was approx. 83.4 – 83.5 Proc. According to forecasts, this indicator will be reached this year 80 Proc.That is, it will decrease by several percentage points – says the professor. Gertruda Ossinska, former President of ZUS (removed from office on 10 January 2024).
The situation remains stable, especially compared to other European countries, where the efficiency of the insurance system is often lower (for example 60-70%). However, the indicator will obviously decrease.
— According to forecasts, in 2028 it will arrive 75 Proc. – explains the professor. Osinska.
Therefore, the Social Insurance Fund balance will be increasingly negative. This year's projected deficit – according to the median alternative – will reach 71.1 billion Polish zlotys, And in 2028 already 101.2 billion Polish zlotys. Within four years, it will increase by 30.1 billion Polish zlotys. In the pessimistic version, this increase will be greater and will amount to 44.3 ml Zloty (In the optimistic alternative – 19 billion Polish zlotys).
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Demographics are to blame
The coverage of ZUS payments from contributions is decreasing, among other things: due to negative demographic trends, including the aging of the population. According to the most likely variable (the average), the number of retirees and disability pensioners will increase by 2028 196 thousand (i.e. 2.4%). At the same time, the number of insured people, i.e. those who are professionally active (paying contributions), will decrease by an amount 117 thousand (decrease by 0.7 percent). Therefore, fewer people will pay contributions and more and more people will receive pensions and annuities from the Social Insurance Fund.
— Statistics indicate that by 2055, the number of people receiving retirement and disability benefits will be equal to the number of workers. – confirmed Lukasz Kozlowski, Chief Economist of the Polish Business Association.
There will be one person receiving benefits for every working person who pays ZUS contributions. Therefore, it is not surprising that system performance deteriorates.
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The old system is expensive
There are other factors that also affect this efficiency.
The increasing deficit in the retirement fund must be taken into account The huge liabilities resulting from the old retirement system in effect until the end of 1998. They were taken out earlier, but now we are paying pension payments – reminds the professor. Osinska.
He emphasizes that these obligations are borne by people who currently work and pay contributions.
The deficit will come from the old retirement system. Therefore, the need for support from the state budget will increase. It is not possible to cover these “old” commitments to such a large extent with current contributions – stresses the professor. Osinska.
currently 99 Proc. Pensions are granted taking into account the initial capital, that is, the part of the benefit acquired in connection with the work until the end of 1998. As a result, pensions are higher, but this in turn means higher payment costs.
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