December 1, 2021

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The fourth wave of the pandemic.  Disease statistics.  restrictions

The fourth wave of the pandemic. Disease statistics. restrictions

8,378 people were infected with COVID-19 in the last day, according to a report from the Ministry of Health, published on October 28 before noon. This is the worst result since April 29 (8420 cases), the end of the third wave of the epidemic. In addition, the Ministry of Health has reported that 101 people have lost their lives in the fight against COVID-19.

We alerted last week that increases in new cases, seen through the lens of the dynamic seven-day average, are of significant concern. We were upset that if the observed trend continues, we could have 20-30K in the second half of November. Case per day and about 20 thousand. New cases within the dynamic weekly average.

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The key to the development of the fourth wave of the epidemic is the week between November 8 and 15

Our calculations have been confirmed by experts. Dr. Grayna Cholewiska-Szymaska, an infectious disease specialist and head of the Wojewdzki Zakany Hospital in Warsaw, predicted in “Poranna Rozmowa Gazeta.pl” on October 26 that the main period for the development of the fourth wave of epidemics in Poland will be between November 8 and 15.

More about the fourth wave of the coronavirus epidemic Read on Gazeta.pl

According to her calculations, we will be dealing with a “very critical increase” in the number of COVID-19 cases.

And this may already prove to be a common move for Halloween. (…) Give these analyzes up to 20-30 thousand. illness

The Mazovian County Counsellor in Infectious Diseases resides in our program.

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The mention of Poles’ visits to cemeteries is not without hindrance here, as more than a week ago rulers assured that Poles would be able to visit their relatives’ resting places unhindered on Halloween. On October 20, the Minister of Health, Adam Nedzelsky, confirmed in the context of the cemeteries that “they will certainly be open and there will be no surprise.”

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Let us remember that the Ministry of Health and the Medical Council at the time of the first presentation were already aware of the dynamically increasing trend of the disease. The weekly average of daily new coronavirus cases in the week of October 15-21 was 3,592 and was close to 80%. More than average from the previous week.

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Another week has passed and the situation is only changing for the worse. The seven-day dynamic average of new COVID-19 cases jumped to 6,096, an increase of nearly 70%. From week to week. What is he doing – or rather saying because the ministry is backing down from work at the moment – the Minister of Health? He admits that the government’s estimates of the pace of development of the fourth wave of the epidemic turn out to be inaccurate. According to the government’s analysis, at the end of November, the number of daily infections with the new Corona virus ranged from 7 to 15 thousand, while at the end of December – 7-12 thousand.

These expectations require overestimation

– said Minister Niedzielski on October 26.

But… this is basically the end of the reaction. Because both the Ministry of Health and the government are postponing all activities (again) in time.

Decisions will be made in early November

– announced Minister Niedzielski. And he will add:

We need to be clear about the course of the pandemic in the last week of October. However, I would like to stress that for the government, restrictions are a last resort due to the associated social and economic costs.

Despite this, the head of the Ministry of Health admits that if the current trend of increase in the daily number of infections continues next week, “this means that the maximum number of infections, which we expect for the end of November, will appear in October.”

If at the end of October we are at an average level of over 7,000 nursing during the day, you should consider taking some more restrictive steps

– More accurate politician.

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several dozenThe holiday has ended since the pandemic. Huge increases in the number of cases [WYKRES DNIA]

In turn, Deputy Nedzelsky, Deputy Minister of Health Waldemar Kraska, said that the plan for a return to dividing Poland into green, green and red zones is already ready, but … he has not yet presented it.

We have a plan prepared, and we have prepared the proportions when such zones can be established. Let’s wait until tomorrow, we will definitely talk about it in our team

Will reveal in an interview with Wirtualn Poland.

Minister Niedzielski mentioned the above-mentioned solution two days ago, arguing that the government is moving towards regionalization with anti-epidemic restrictions, because the situation in individual counties is very different. The worst appears on the so-called eastern wall, especially in the areas of Lublin and Podlasie. According to the head of the Ministry of Health, both are “far from infection.”

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Therefore, they will be under the microscope, but please do not ask for specific solutions, because it is too early

– He will admit.

We also learned from the Niedzielski conference that the governors, when analyzing the epidemiological situation, will pay attention to three factors, on the basis of which decisions will be made on the severity of the restrictions. These factors are: The number of COVID-19 infections per 100,000. of the population, the level of vaccination of the population in a particular area, the number of hospitals and the available margin of free ‘ek covid’.

It’s hard not to get the impression that conservative rulers when making decisions about confronting the fourth wave of the pandemic are about who will be affected in the first place. As the restrictions are regionalized, they will affect primarily the political strongholds of the United Right – Podlasieand Lubelszczyzna, Podkarpacie and also a large part of Maopolska. In these areas we find municipalities with very low and very low levels of vaccination. There is also, so far, the fourth wave affected, which is what the rulers say quite simply.

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However, in recent months, the government has proven that it is not ready to take difficult and potentially politically costly decisions to combat the pandemic. The national vaccine program failed to achieve its goal. Population attainment at just over 53 percent. Poland is among the countries that come after the European Union. They are just behind us CroatiaSlovakia and Romania.

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But is it surprising that the recommendations of the Medical Council in the Prime Minister’s Office are often ignored by the government? In the “Gazeta.pl Morning Conversation” Dr. Grayna Cholewiska-Szymaska ​​spoke about it, citing the opinions of her fellow board members.

Medical board initiatives and suggestions are often specific and specific, and then the final decision sometimes comes differently.

Recognizes an infectious disease specialist.