December 1, 2022

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The disastrous mood of the Poles.  It wasn't that bad even in the case of a pandemic.  "At the beginning of summer, beginning of winter"

The disastrous mood of the Poles. It wasn’t that bad even in the case of a pandemic. “At the beginning of summer, beginning of winter”

-43.8 – This was the amount of the so-called BWUK, the current consumer confidence index, in June of this year. Compared to May, this means a decrease of up to 5.4 p. BWUK considers assessments of changes in the financial situation of households and the general economic situation of the country (in the past twelve months and the outlook for the next year), as well as the current readiness to make important purchases. All of these BWUK components deteriorated month after month.

The entire index and its components may range from -100 (if everyone is aware of the deteriorating situation) to 100 (if everyone is optimistic). As you can see, a reading of -43.8 means that the advantage of people who look at the present and the future with fear and pessimism is great.

BWUK on the negative side – that is, the predominance of negative moods – is nothing new. The last time the indicator was positive Walk 2020, when GUS research has yet to detect the impact of the pandemic. But the June reading of -43.8 is the worst in history (that is, since 2002) – lower even than it was at the worst moment of the pandemic, in the financial crisis of 2008 or even earlier, when we had, for example, unemployment in Poland several times higher from today.

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A worse view of the future except within two months of the pandemic and after the outbreak of war

It also drops the so-called Leading Consumer Confidence Index (WWUK). It examines our assessments for the next 12 months in terms of: changes in our family’s financial situation, the country’s general economic situation, and trends in unemployment and money savings.

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WWUK in June was -31.3. This is a little better than it was in March of this year. (After the invasion Russia to Ukraine), when it ranged between -31.5. Earlier, Poles reported worse moods about the future just two months after the outbreak – in April and May 2020. And earlier – only in 2004.

The data in the current and leading Consumer Sentiment Index joins with previous data (eg weaker data) Industrial productionAnd the Retail sales or construction production and assembly), indicating an upcoming economic slowdown. The deteriorating mood of Poles about their finances and the state of the country’s economy suggests more and more caution in planning spending rather than rampant consumption.

“Belt Tightening”, “Introduction to Braking”. The data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) is supposed to be good, but…

Bad consumer mood in the United States and Europe

The mood of consumers is weak not only in Poland. Also, the US economic climate in the region is at its lowest level in history euro The situation was only worse during the first shutdown.

People - Image captionPoll: More than two-thirds of Poles think the economy is in crisis