- There are regular rumors in the media about the upcoming resignation of General Zalozny, which President Zelenskyy would like to realize.
- According to experts, Załużny is an effective leader and from an objective point of view, it is difficult to find a reason to dismiss him.
- Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko claims that Zalozny's desire to resign is the result of President Zelensky's emotional approach, rather than logical calculations.
- According to experts, the dismissal may lead to discontent among Ukrainians, which in turn may affect the current president’s popularity ratings.
- The challenge, political scientists point out, is finding a worthy successor to Zalozny – perhaps the main reason he has not been sacked yet.
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One of the most important questions about General Załużny is his effectiveness. Can Zelensky fire him for poor performance? On the other hand, Zalozhny won high-profile victories near Kiev, Kharkov and Kherson. On the other hand, he is also responsible for the failed counterattack in the summer, which did not meet the expectations of the country's political leadership.
Military experts agree that Zalozny acted effectively as army commander, and that the counterattack, lacking resources and support, could not have gone better.
– I think the best indicator of Zalozhny's effectiveness is that in two years Russia has not been able to implement any of the plans for the so-called “special military operation.” This already proves him as an effective manager and a talented military man. Not only did he manage to keep the situation under control, but he also managed to carry out a number of offensive operations. More than 60 percent Military expert Dmytro Snegiryov says that the occupied territories have returned to Ukrainian control.
The expert also claims that Załużny managed to build effective communications with Western partners, which plays an important role in Ukraine receiving aid.
— Załużny authority provides the basis for building relations with the armies of other countries. Professional talking to professional. Snegirov says it works.
In his opinion, there is another no less important point in the general’s list of achievements, which is that he was able to gain credibility among the military. In a country at war, this is very important. Ultimately, the army must trust its leaders.
— Załużny built a mechanism for effective management of the army. Thanks to his methods, the army was able to achieve its current results. I am in constant contact with the army and know their attitude towards the Commander-in-Chief very well. They trust him. They acknowledge his authority. Snegirov says that this starts from the lowest level of military personnel to the highest ranks.
Why does Zelensky want to release Zalozny?
So the question arises: Why is an effective leader replaced during a war, and could someone else be more effective in his position?
Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko describes the whole situation as a “psychological chain reaction” for Zelensky. However, he stressed that the president is not trying to dismiss Zalozny, but rather transfer him to another position.
– There should be no conflict between the superior and the subordinate. But the situation is different here: there is psychological tension. We can even talk about a psychological crisis in the relationship between Zelensky and Zalozny, Fesenko says.
– In the beginning, the reason was the president’s jealousy of the general’s high popularity ratings. Then came the counterattack, which did not live up to expectations. This was the beginning of the conflict. In recent months, Zelensky's dissatisfaction with the situation on the front has become clear. The president is an emotional person. He wants a plan that will improve the situation, but he doesn't get it. There are objective reasons why Załużny cannot offer it to him now. The president's irritation is exacerbated by the fact that people sympathetic to General Zalozny are actively discussing his future presidency. Fesenko says Zelensky and his team certainly don't like that.
Political scientist Viktor Bobrenko shares this opinion. However, he adds, Zaloni and the military remain outside the president's control. This bothers the other.
— The debtor is not accountable to God, society, or the state. On the contrary, he is a general who has already made history. But he is a person who is not satisfied with the presidential position. The head of the President's Office, Andrej Yermak, is a prominent figure and controls the parliament, government and other institutions. Zelensky, of course, makes the decisions, but Yermak prepares them. The only institution in the country that is not under the control of the Office of the President is the armed forces. They don't like it. Załużny, in turn, resists attempts to control him, Bobrenko says.
Therefore, according to the expert, the president began to act on the basis of emotions and not logic.
Let us imagine that life is a stage on the map of the world drawn by Zelensky. In this theater he was a prima donna. Yermak is the director of plays in which Zelensky plays the main role. There are screenwriters who write good scripts. There is an orchestra and people singing, for example, Parliament. At the end of each play, people applaud the main actor. Zelensky was the main and only actor on stage. Bobrenko describes this as being applauded by parliaments around the world.
– And then Załużny appeared on the stage and was applauded often and loudly. The president envies this and feels insulted that the public likes Załużny more than him. It is not about logic and politics, nor is it about balanced decision-making. The political scientist adds that these are pure feelings.
Why can't Zelenskyy fire Zalozny?
Another question that arises is why the story of Załużny's dismissal has been dragging on for several months. After all, the president has the right to fire the commander-in-chief. Instead, rumors of Załużny's cancellation appear every month, but quickly disappear.
— The president's entourage realizes that Zalozny's dismissal will lead to even greater problems. It will cause dissatisfaction and criticism in society. Zelensky will suffer from the loss of his image. As a result, the president himself will create a real, rather than a potential, political competitor in the upcoming elections. They would like to transfer the general to another position. Or find mechanisms that allow Załużny to leave, but he does not agree. This is the reason behind the impasse, Fesenko says.
Bobrenko, in turn, believes that Zelensky has lost 5 to 7 percentage points in recent days alone. In order of trust. After all, society does not accept Zalozny's dismissal, and this situation puts the president at a disadvantage.
– Thanks to such actions, Zelensky will turn into a politician who will not be able to win the elections. As long as Zalozny is the commander-in-chief, he cannot run and is not a contender, but Zelensky is acting under the influence of emotions. The expert says that at some point he will not stop and replace him with someone else.
Fesenko agrees that Zaluzhny will be released sooner or later. It's only a matter of time. With mobilization and the deterioration of the country's socio-economic situation, the removal of the Supreme Leader may fade into the background and be viewed by society less painfully than it is currently. In addition, there is still the question of who can take over as debtor.
Zelensky will fire Zalozny as soon as a replacement is found, Fesenko says.
Who will replace Załużny?
Here a very important question arises: who can replace the commander-in-chief in a country at war and facing a difficult situation on the front? Both political scientists and military experts agree that finding someone new for the position will be very difficult. Rumors have recently circulated that Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov and General Oleksandr Sirsky are considered candidates to replace him. But unconfirmed information indicates that they both refused.
— I think Siersky and Budanov could have refused. Budanov is not ready for this. Cerski could have taken this position, but he realizes that the person who will replace Załużny will be viewed as negative as possible, Fesenko claims.
Bobrenko agrees and says that in such conditions there are almost no people willing to replace the Commander-in-Chief. He mentions several factors that influence this:
— First of all, Załużny has already achieved very big victories that will go down in history. Given the situation, he does not expect such victories from his successor. It is very difficult to measure debtor power. The second factor is the mentality of Ukrainians. Załużny's dismissal may be viewed by society as unfair. As our history and revolutions show, Ukrainians do not accept injustice. They do not care whether the president has the right to do so or not. He adds that in any case, they will look negatively at the person who will assume the duties of the Supreme Commander.
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