December 3, 2021

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Fatal expectations for our governor.  High inflation will continue for a long time.  Poland in the Czech Republic

Fatal expectations for our governor. High inflation will continue for a long time. Poland in the Czech Republic

The European Commission announced its regular meetings, Autumn economic forecasts for all EU countries. In Poland, the economy has started to grow strongly after a mild recession last year. We expect growth in Poland PKB By 4.9% in 2021, by 5.2% in 2022, and by 4.4%. In 2023, Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs said today. In contrast, the expected GDP growth for the entire European Union is 5%. This year (2.7 percent in Germany and 6.5 percent in France), and next year, 4.3 percent. (4.6% in Germany and 3.8% in France), and in 2023 it was 2.5%. (1.7% in Germany and 2.3% in France).

Polish inflation will fall in 2023

The strong economic recovery in the European Union has been accompanied by growth inflation Also exceeded our previous expectations. In the near future inflation It will remain high, but for the whole union it will gradually decline during 2022. It is largely related to the opening up of the economy after the pandemic, and thus this increased pressure on growth Sin Gentiloni confirmed it was still considered temporary.

This rise in inflation is also the result of post-pandemic supply disruptions to industry and higher energy prices, but the European Commission continues to say that this is a rather temporary problem. “The players in the gas and electricity market who are anticipating lower prices in the year after reaching their growth peak this winter,” Gentiloni said.

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Inflation in Poland was 5.6% in September and is expected to reach 5% for the whole of 2021. (2.6% in the entire EU, 3.1% for Germany). It will be higher only in Hungary (5.1%). On the other hand, the expected Polish inflation next year is expected to reach 5.2 percent, the highest in the entire European Union (2.5 percent for the entire EU and 2.1 percent for Germany). Despite this, the European Commission expects that in Poland it will be possible to rein in market “inflation expectations” and prevent the “temporary pressure on price increases” from turning into a permanent phenomenon, which will lead to a drop in inflation to 2.6%. . in 2022 (1.4% for the entire EU and 1.7% for Germany).

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Polish economy at pre-pandemic level

The Polish economy, as measured by real GDP, has returned to the level it was already in the second quarter of this year before Pandemic – fueled by both high consumption and investment growth. The level of employment in Poland has already in the second quarter of 2021 exceeded the level it was before the pandemic, and also – the European Commission has strongly emphasized – the labor shortage in the Polish market and another increase in the minimum wage in 2022, according to today’s forecast by Brussels, to contribute In increasing and accelerating wage growth in Poland.

According to today’s forecast from the European Commission, the Polish deficit should decrease from 3.3%. GDP in 2021 to 1.8% GDP in 2022 and will rise slightly to 2.1%. In 2023. Public debt – as a result of economic growth and, among other things, the withdrawal of pandemic support for the economy from the state budget – should decrease from 57.4 percent. GDP in 2020 (calculated according to the EU methodology) to 49.5%. in 2023

The European Commission’s predictions are based on the “technical assumption” that the KPO will soon be unfrozen. Among the risk factors, commission experts point to – apart from transnational disruptions in supply markets – a low level of vaccination, which could lead to a jump in disease and affect the economy.

Industry supply bottlenecks are slowing production

Also in Germany’s case, bottlenecks in industry are slowing production and – as Brussels asserts – limiting Germany’s recovery in exports and investment. Despite this, the economy and the labor market are on the way to a more significant recovery. In 2021, normal prices will be restored value added taxHigher taxes on carbon dioxide and higher commodity and energy prices supported by strong demand pushed the expected inflation to 3.1%. by only 0.3 percent. for the previous year. Continued supply and energy price disruptions are expected to keep inflation above 2%. in 2022 before declining to 1.7% in 2023.

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