The zloty is strengthening. In recent days, the dollar has repeatedly reached levels below PLN 3.99, and the euro fluctuates around PLN 4.36. The American currency is the cheapest since the holidays, and the European currency since 2020.
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Cheap black friday
The most obvious place to take advantage of a low foreign exchange valuation is in foreign stores. The profit isn’t always amazing, but it often leaves something in our pockets. This is especially evident in the case of electronics. For a simple reason – it is expensive.
On one foreign site, the Radeon RX 7800 XT graphics card costs about 555 euros. Taking into account the current exchange rate, this amounts to just under PLN 2,400. In the Polish version of the site, the same product is available for PLN 2,599. The difference is less than 200 Polish zlotys. The exchange rate may be important here, because if the same product is converted at the “holiday” exchange rate – the euro exceeds PLN 4.65 – the same card will cost about PLN 2,600. Therefore, thinking about shopping abroad will not make any sense.
In the same foreign store we found the iPhone 13. At a price of just under 670 euros, equivalent to approximately PLN 2,920. The price on the same website – but in its Polish version – is currently 3185 PLN. The difference (after conversion) is about PLN 265. And again we can check what the price would be after converting to Polish zloty, if the euro did not rise too much. Calculating the “holiday” rate (PLN 4.65), we will pay just under PLN 3,120. Instead of 265 PLN, we will have approximately 60-70 PLN left in our pockets.
In the case of more expensive products, the profit is of course greater. The latest model of Apple’s smartphone – iPhone 15 Pro – costs 1,199 euros on a foreign website. This is over 5,200 Polish zlotys. The price in Poland is 5999 PLN – the difference is about 800 PLN. And here the depreciation of the euro again helps – the “holiday” exchange rate will fall. Theoretically we won by half.
Smaller-scale purchases are also cheaper, and not just for electronics. However, the difference will not be noticeable, but for some people, getting several tens of zlotys may be satisfactory.
It is worth following foreign portals on Black Friday. Due to cheap currencies, promotional purchases may become cheaper.
Less expensive accommodation abroad
The cheaper euro and dollar are also preferred by those who are going on a foreign trip or vacation in the near future. It probably won’t be cheaper to buy the flight itself. Tourist offices book them in advance. The time of year also affects the price. But when we pay by card abroad, yes The lower price will allow you to spend less on meals, drinks, attractions, travel and gifts for your loved ones.
What savings can this bring? Assuming that the dollar has lost approximately 60 cents in value since the beginning of the year, every thousand dollars spent on holiday expenses means a profit of several hundred zlotys.
The exchange rate also affects the prices of imported products such as citrus fruits, coffee and tea. In this case, the exchange rate is one of the components of the final price. There are many factors that affect the cost of a product in a store. However, there is no doubt that a strong zloty helps limit the effects of inflation in the case of imported products.
The latest data from the Central Statistical Office indicates that it is still high. The average was 6.6 percent. In October from year to year. However, the prices of imported products increased significantly, such as coffee (11.1%) and tea (17.3%). The decline in foreign exchange rates will certainly help limit the rise in the prices of these products. However, we should not expect any major changes on the store shelf.
Fuel doesn’t always get cheaper when the dollar gets cheaper
In the case of fuel, the situation is more complicated because A lower dollar does not necessarily mean buying cheaper. It sometimes happens that in response to a decline in the value of the US currency, the price of oil rises. This is affected by changes in demand. A rise in oil prices is usually accompanied by a decline in the value of the dollar. However, this is not always the case – at the moment, although the value of the dollar is falling, the price of raw materials is also falling slightly.
This is affected by the situation in the Middle East. On Wednesday morning, the price of a barrel of Brent crude on the London Stock Exchange decreased by 0.24%, to $82.25, and the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Stock Exchange decreased by 0.22%, to $77.60. At Tuesday’s close, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was $82.45, and the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $77.77.
The market situation is very different from the one that contributed to the inflationary pressure. On February 24, 2022 – the day of the Russian attack on Ukraine – a barrel of Brent crude cost $99, and WTI was worth $92.8.
At the peak of the rise, oil prices in the United States reached $130. per barrel, and in Europe it approached $140.
How long will the strengthening of the zloty last?
But why did the Polish currency strengthen so much? As Bartosz Sawicki, an analyst at Cinkciarz.pl, points out, this is not only a result of what is happening in Israel. The attractiveness of the Polish zloty in the short term It increases the likelihood that interest rates will remain at the current level. Investors are also optimistic about relations between Poland and the European Union. but this is not all.
“The US currency has begun another installment of a long-term downward trend. It will continue with slower economic growth and a continuing decline in inflation. Not only will the dollar lose its current hallmark of economic strength, it will also lose its current hallmark of economic strength.” “This stands in sharp contrast to the risk of recession in the eurozone and the anemia of the Chinese economy, but it will face the pressure of interest rate cuts.”
The dollar and euro may be cheaper
What awaits us in the future? It is difficult to expect a deeper decline in the coming weeks. Bartosz Sawicki predicts that due to the rapid rate of depreciation of the dollar, it will now gain.
According to the analyst, in 2024, the continued strength of the Polish zloty and the weakness of the dollar against major currencies will We can pay 4 Polish zlotys per dollar for a long time. Moreover, the US currency may fall to around PLN 3.70.
According to Bartosz Sawicki, the zloty will also support relatively strong economic growth – GDP dynamics will exceed 2.5% in 2024. The euro exchange rate, which today remains at the level seen during the pandemic, It will most likely return to the pre-2020 rate – around PLN 4.25.
According to the analyst, prices should be less volatile than in the past three years. However, before the zloty rises, similar to the dollar, at the end of December, the euro will likely cost a few cents more than it currently does.
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