The end of the year is a good time for most employees. They can count on bonuses and Christmas bonuses. This year, the so-called inflationary provisions to mitigate the consequences of the sharp increase in prices.
All this will be reflected in wage statistics. On Tuesday at 10 o’clock – the latest data of the Central Bureau of Statistics on the average salary in medium and large companies for November will see the light of day. We’ve examined what you can expect in this report and what the average wage will be in December.
It turns out that the forecasts of bank economists are very diverse. The biggest pessimists believe that compared to November 2021, the average salary increased by 12.4%. In this version, it will be 6000. Gross 769 PLN (net about 4860 PLN). The most optimistic estimates assume close to 15 percent. Lifts and more than 6,000 gross PLN 900 (net 4,960 PLN).
The average expectancy in our ranking is 13.2 percent. (Last month it was 13 percent.) if confirmed by Central Bureau of Statistics data, The average salary in November will be 6,000. Gross PLN 816 (Net 4,895 PLN). This amount is approximately 130 PLN higher than in October and Highest score ever. The previous record was set in July 2022. At that time, salary statistics showed an amount of 6,000 PLN. Gross 778.63 PLN (Net 4868 PLN).
mBank economists acknowledge that the November average salary is a big conundrum in this round of forecasts, all because Allowances and rewards in mining.
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– We assume that in many industries, including mining and power generation, anti-inflationary bonuses earned by employees were paid in the middle of the year, – Marta Petka Zagajewska, head of the macroeconomic analysis team at PKO BP, indicated in an interview report with Business Insider.
adds that In the case of mining companies, this coincided with Barbórka paymentsWhich was probably moved a month earlier than the previous year. This could mean that in the “mining” section of the Central Bureau of Statistics’ statistics, the average salary could almost double.
The cap of 7,000 will drop for the first time. zlotys
November is just a prelude to the December earnings numbers. More than half a month behind us and although the official figures of the Central Statistical Office will be presented in a month, we can already safely say that For the first time in history, the average salary in the corporate sector will exceed 7,000 PLN. PLN total.
This ceiling will very clearly be exceeded, although opinions are divided on the exact amount. The economist at PKO BP predicts 7,000 PLN. Total 444 PLN. This means an increase of 12%. every year.
Rafael Beneke expects a much deeper slowdown in wage increases in December. The chief economist of ING Bank Śląski admits in an interview with Business Insider that even single-digit dynamics, less than 10 percent, are allowed to decline. The last time this happened was in January 2022.
With predictive dynamics of 9.9 percent. The average wage in December will be around 7,000. Total 300 PLN. The economist explained the expected significant slowdown in the growth of the average salary base effect.
– In December 2021, there was a wage increase that strongly outpaced seasonality. Then, on a monthly basis, salaries jumped 10.3 percent. In contrast, in 2022, the increase in the minimum wage was very limited. this year, Because of the significant increase in the minimum wage, December bonuses may be less generous says Rafal Benicki. Double-digit dynamics will be back in January, he adds, well above 10 percent.
Real wages are falling and will only get worse
Even at PKO BP, where the salary outlook is the most optimistic, economists maintain that the end of 2022 will be affected by one-time events. In general, the situation is more difficult.
– We deal with backlog of one-time payments. This is not an indication of accelerating wage dynamics or a spiral of wages and prices Marta Petka Zagajewska confirms.
It is estimated that the trend in wage dynamics, especially in real terms, remains negative from the point of view of employees. However, he points out that it is currently desirable for the economy.
From the point of view of concerns about continued inflation, this is a positive sign. Lower real wages create savings and will lower core inflation in 2023 – indicates the economist of PKO BP.
Raffai Beneke also noted the important role of inflation premiums in boosting payroll statistics in November. However, ING’s chief economist believes current increases will be rather limited.
– I suppose so Companies at the end of the year will limit their increases in preparation for them Legal increase in the minimum wage from the new year Benecki says.
The suggestions of Pekao Bank experts are similar. They estimate that the increase in basic wages is slowing down, which will contribute to gradually reducing inflation in the spring of next year. “Then we will see a severe decline in real wages (up to 10% on an annual basis)“- they warn.
According to Rafa Benicki The largest decline in real wages (the biggest The difference between rising prices and wages) it will happen in February 2023. However, he is less pessimistic about this than he is about Bikau. This difference is estimated at 7.5 percentage points.
– Practically throughout the next year, real wages will be negative. Only in the last quarter of the year is there a possibility that wage growth will outpace inflation by about 1.5 percent. – assesses the economic ING.
It predicts an inflation rate of 21 percent. It will slow down to about 10%. Before the end of 2023. At the same time, nominal wage growth will be more stable. In January, it will reach its peak at 13.7 percent. By the end of next year it will drop to about 9 percent.
author: Damien Somsky is a journalist for Business Insider Polska
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