Salaries are growing faster than the value of apartments

According to HREIT experts, the situation in which housing prices rise faster than Poles' salaries is a “dangerous” situation. In recent years, there have been alternating periods in which housing prices or salaries have risen more, but more often than not, Poles' wages have seen larger increases.

According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, average The gross salary in enterprises is 0.68 m2 of apartments (data Q3 2023), which is almost the same as 5-10 years ago.

– On the other hand, the current result is slightly better than in the years 2020-2022, but it is also more than half better than in 2007. Counting from the peak of the last boom in 2007, the nominal prices of apartments in 7 major markets rose by 59% (data from NBP Pleasure Index), But at the same time, wages in the corporate sector increased by 157%. – We read in the report.

The HREIT chart (embedded below) shows that there have been instances where housing prices have risen more than wages. This was the case, for example, in 2017 or in 2018-2022, and perhaps later.It will be similar in the final months of 2023 (you'll have to wait for the full data here). Although salaries were growing very rapidly at that time (11% year on year according to the Central Statistical Office), increased demand due to the “2% safe credit” and information about the expiration of this program, stimulated the increase in housing prices in major cities.

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Data from the Central Statistical Office also show that Poles in the corporate sector earned PLN 52 billion in December 2023 alone, of which more than PLN 96,000 could be purchased. Apartments in provincial cities. But this does not mean that Poles can afford better and better apartments. The problem lies in the way average wages are calculated.

However, please note that The Central Bureau of Statistics statistics relate to enterprises that employ at least 10 people, but not all of them (Public administration, education, health care and social assistance sectors have been omitted). As a result, data on average salaries covers only a quarter of the salaries received by Poles. Moreover, according to the 2022 HRE report, Poles can afford smaller and smaller apartments. However, if we consider data from the enterprise sector alone, the purchasing power of employees of medium and large companies is actually improving in the context of the purchasing power of wages.

What may be no less interesting is that the latest data indicates that the total wage bill in companies has doubled in less than 7 years. In February 2017, the total salaries paid to employees of the corporate sector employing at least 10 people amounted to less than PLN 26 billion. It did not take long for the salaries transferred to employee accounts to double – We read in the HREIT report.

Bartosz Turek, senior analyst at HRE Investment Trust, points out that the recovery of the economy and the decline in the number of employees indicate that The good situation in the labor market will last longer. It is known from November inflation forecasts that salaries in Poland will be 9.3% higher on average. than in 2023, and the “2% Safe Credit” program has stopped working, which should cool the hot demand. Although a new housing program is scheduled to be launched in 2024, the government is working on it so that the situation in which the launch of subsidies led to significant price increases will not be repeated.

Changes in wages and housing prices in recent years
Author: HREIT

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