What's next for real estate prices?  The NBP report leaves no doubt

Prices in Poland's real estate market can be amazing. We recently wrote on next.gazeta.pl that regardless of the decline in demand, prices are still rising, and at the moment we should not expect a reversal of this trend. In addition, sellers hope that demand will increase thanks to the “Mieszkanie na start” program announced by the government.

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Maciej Samsik: Real estate prices in Poland will continue to rise for some time, especially in larger cities

How much will real estate prices rise in 2024? The Polish National Bank published the report

The Polish National Bank published a report entitled “Information on apartment prices and the situation of the residential and commercial real estate market in Poland in the last quarter of 2023”. Developers surveyed by the central bank “almost unanimously” expect apartment prices to rise by an average of 11 per cent next year. They estimate they are 15% behind us. He increases.

“The increase in apartment prices in 2023, according to developers, amounted to 15% as a result of strong factors driving prices (ongoing inflation, increasing purchasing power of households, improving apartment sales with limited supply of buildings in the region) the primary market and high production costs.” The survey participants were almost unanimous in their opinion. “They expect an average 11% increase in housing prices in 2024. – we read in the NBP report.

According to the report, 62 percent, developers expect sales to be at a similar level to last year. This moderate optimism is associated, among other things, with a new government program that supports the purchase of apartments. Another factor is the continued interest in real estate as a form of investment. Meanwhile, developers announced an increase in apartment construction in 2024 and 2025 by 71% respectively. And 42 percent

NBP report on real estate Developers pointed out the main problem

On the other hand, developers surveyed by the Central Bank drew attention to problems with land access. The report indicates that they are able to build 5% more on their current land stock. Apartments are less than planned. Land prices in very good locations increased by 32%. In 2023 (in 2022 it was 30%).

“At the end of 2023, 8% of all developers interviewed, which included only small entities, did not have plots of land, which may indicate that this group is considering winding down their business and is experiencing financial problems and conserving liquidity.” – says the report. Developers assert that the number of plots of land in good locations has decreased. Only the “difficult” ones remain available, that is, those that require higher costs or take longer to prepare.

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