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Daily review of security and defense sector media.
Andrei Lomanovsky: rp.pl: “Objects of the air battle over Ukraine. “Russia is constantly changing its tactics.”
The Russian army is constantly changing the way it launches its air strikes in Ukraine, trying to bypass its air defenses. European diplomacy chief Josep Borrell spent Wednesday morning in an air raid shelter in Kiev. But, as before, the attack began the previous evening with an airstrike by Iranian Shahid drones (three-quarters of which were shot down). Then throughout the night, rockets and guided missiles were coming from different directions. Some were launched from Russian strategic bombers flying over the Caspian Sea, others from the Crimean Peninsula. “Martyrs” and some missiles – from the capes of the Crimean peninsula closest to the Ukrainian mainland, but also from the Kursk and Belgorod regions. The missiles were launched not only against Kiev, but also against Mykolaiv, Kharkov, cities in the Dnipropetrovsk region and even Drohobych. One of the missiles flew directly towards Poland, but changed its course by 180 degrees 20 kilometers from the border. In total, the Russians launched 64 different types of missiles. The previous powerful attack occurred on January 23, when 44 missiles were fired at Ukraine (half of which were shot down).
The January attack was also the first in which the Russians used new air tactics. Previously, they released several dozen martyrs to confuse the Ukrainian air defense and exhaust its resources. On January 23, the drones did not take off, but launched dozens of so-called false targets. Some video recordings of the attack show missiles separating from Russian missiles in mid-air, just like on planes or helicopters. “Instead of the martyr, false targets were used to reduce the effectiveness of the air defense and save the drones for later strikes (…). “It is likely that the Ukrainian army has already adapted to such offensive formations,” the American Institute for the Study of War summarized the change in Russian tactics in January.
tech.wp.pl: “Reconnaissance balloons for the Polish Army. There is approval from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
Negotiations regarding Poland's acquisition of reconnaissance balloons reached a happy conclusion. The US State Department agreed to sell four copies to Poland. The end of the negotiations was announced on Wednesday by State Secretary of the Ministry of National Defense, Pavel Pejda, who wrote on the New systems to the Polish Army, observation of the skies will reach a completely new level. The approval of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the culmination of a long process that began in May 2023. The Armament Agency then announced the implementation of the Barbara program, according to which the Polish Army will receive four American airships. Then the Americans received a letter Order from Poland.
Reconnaissance aircraft will complement Polish early warning aircraft. As a means of surveillance, it would be useful in peacetime, providing the possibility of remaining in the air for a very long time with radar or other reconnaissance equipment. By placing the radar at a high altitude, the influence of terrain obstacles and the curvature of the Earth is eliminated, which translates into an increase in the detection range of various objects. In November 2023, the Polish Army announced the creation of a balloon battalion, and the timeline presented then assumes that the first center using this equipment will be launched in 2026.
Bartosz Lewicki: dziennik.dziennik.pl: “Head of the National Security Office warns NATO: the danger is growing significantly”
“Russia's ability to produce weapons will increase in the near future; Therefore, the West must respond by developing its own production and showing its determination to conduct an effective defense operation,” said Jacek Siwira, head of the National Security Office at NATO headquarters in Brussels. It is no secret to most analysis centers in the West that the three-year perspective is one in which the Russian Federation is working very intensively and trying to increase its weapons production capacity, including the production of up to 100 cruise missiles per month, Siwira said.
He also said, “Awareness of the low quality of the components from which these missiles are made leads to a significant increase in the risk of accidents related to airspace violations – even unintentional ones.” – From this point of view, Russia's production capacity will increase in the near future – warned Siwiera. The political leadership of the Russian Federation does not hide its ambitions to mobilize the military to the level of 1.3 million soldiers in the coming period. In this context, the next three years are the period in which Western countries, European Union countries and NATO must adapt. They need to expand their production capacity. They must also demonstrate the readiness and will to collectively undertake an effective defense operation with full determination. To be able to face any danger. The head of the National Security Office added that it is in order to build deterrence in a reliable way.
P.Mal: rp.pl: “Medvedev talks about Russia's war with NATO. He compares the course of the conflict with the Apocalypse.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev believes that Russia will not be able to withstand a large-scale war with NATO using conventional means of warfare, so it will have to use nuclear weapons. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev drew attention to the fact that recently politicians and military chiefs of Western countries called for preparations for war with Russia, although Moscow “repeatedly repeated that it has no plans for conflict with NATO countries and the European Union.” Medvedev described this conversation as “dangerous,” pointing out that such a war, if it occurred, would not follow the scenario that Russia chose in Ukraine, that is, “it would not be fought in trenches with artillery, armored vehicles, and drones.”
He pointed out that NATO is a huge military bloc with a total population of one billion people and a military budget of $1.5 trillion. He added: “Therefore, given the incomparability of our military capabilities, we will have no other choice. The answer will be asymmetric. Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles with special warheads will be used to defend the territorial integrity of our country. …And this is the real apocalypse. The end of the world,” Medvedev said. everything.
On January 19, the head of NATO's Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, said that war with Russia was inevitable. According to him, all countries of the bloc should prepare to start doing so within the next 20 years. A similar invitation was made by the heads of armies and defense ministers of 10 European countries: Great Britain, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Estonia.
news.onet.pl: 'The former Chief of the Russian General Staff admits the superiority of NATO artillery over Russian artillery. Putin claimed otherwise.
Yuri Baluyevsky, former Chief of the Russian General Staff (2004-2008) and former Deputy Secretary of the Security Council (2008-2012), wrote that NATO artillery systems are qualitatively superior to Russian systems. He came to this conclusion in the introduction to the collection of military scientific articles “Algorithms of Fire and Steel.”
Bałujewski writes that Russian developers of artillery systems are still playing catch-up. “There is a qualitative advantage to NATO artillery,” he was quoted as saying by the Standard newspaper. One of the reasons given by the former Chief of General Staff was the development of long-range missiles in the West. “Single Sign-On”[ros. Specjalna Operacja Wojskowa, czyli inwazja na Ukrainę\] It revealed a significant backlog in domestic artillery and missile systems and requires priority rearmament in the coming years,” we read in Bałujewski’s article.
Another conclusion that Bałujewski draws from the course of the war in Ukraine concerns air defence. According to him, Ukrainian air defense unexpectedly defeated Russian aviation, which not only cannot act collectively on enemy territory, but “must also carefully fly and base” on its territory. “The task of effectively suppressing enemy air defense turns out to be practically insoluble. Its solution determines the further course and outcome of combat in the air and beyond.”
General Baluyevsky's conclusions are strikingly different from what Vladimir Putin said on February 2. Then the president stressed that modern Russian weapons are better than those of NATO countries. “Of course, if we compare modern NATO weapons and weapons of the last period of the Soviet era, they are inferior in some respects, by the way, not always. And if we take into account our latest weapons, then they are clearly superior to them all. This is an obvious fact,” Putin said.
Maria Kroczkowska: sklep.pl: “Pakistan's 230 million people go to the polls. The generals have the last word anyway.
The most popular politician is in prison, the nation is divided, and Islamists are organizing bloody attacks. In light of this tense atmosphere, Pakistanis will elect their parliament on Thursday.
The most likely candidate in the elections is 74-year-old Nawaz Sharif, the scion of a powerful family that has ruled the country several times, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League and a veteran politician. Since 1990, he has served as prime minister three times. However, when he became too powerful and tried to conduct foreign policy on his own or implement reforms, he was overthrown by the military and associated courts. After a few years, the politician ended up in exile. The last time he headed the government was in 2013. This led to a vote of no confidence, a ban on him from holding any position for life, and exile. Sharif moved to London. A year ago (when he had already retired), he was sent back to Pakistan and promised forgiveness of all fines.
The West appreciates him very much. “He is a skilled veteran at balancing the United States and China,” says former British diplomat Tim Willacy, now a lecturer at Oxford University. -He will also seek to establish good relations with India. Sharif's victory is certain because his arch-rival Imran Khan, 71-year-old and former captain of the national cricket team, will not contest the election. After his government resigned in 2022, he was convicted in four trials. In total, he has to serve 34 years.
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