January 27, 2023

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Inflation will be 17.2% on an annual basis at the end of 2022, and 9.5% at the end of 2023.

The bank’s economists stress that “from the second quarter of 2023, core inflation will decline, eventually to around 6% at the end of the year.”

“We assume that 2023 will bring about a gradual and stable trend in inflation that will start in March and will reduce inflation slightly to below 10% at the end of the year. Inflation will reflect the waning effects of the 2022 shock (relatively stable food and energy/fuel prices in 2023 versus 2022) and slowing core inflation. Lower core inflation will result in part from changes on the supply side (weakening cost pressure), but mainly on the demand side, we read in the Bank’s quarterly macroeconomic report “Crazy Monetary Struggle”.

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Falling real income, running out of space to smooth consumption through austerity, and freezing credit to the economy will reduce demand. This will increase competitive pressure, lowering the margin and limiting the space for retail price increases.

“The main factor determining the course of inflation in the next 2-3 years will be price changes in the energy market (mainly electricity) and the pace of its transfer to retail customers. We estimate that in 2023 the average electricity bill (net) will increase by 13 percent, which The volume reflects the growth of market prices in only 1/10. And this, even in an optimistic scenario regarding the development of the energy crisis, creates a significant inflationary “weight” for the coming years, which will prolong inflation at a high level, ”the report concludes.

According to PKO BP, the average annual CPI inflation will be 14.3%. in this year and 14.4 percent in 2023

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The main drivers of uncertainty are: Changes in commodity prices. organizational and administrative changes, the zloty exchange rate, the strength and durability of wage pressure; Changes in global inflationary pressures.


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