December 1, 2022

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Nowe prognozy KE. W przyszłym roku inflacja w Polsce ma być najwyższa w Unii, PKB w dół

New European Commission forecasts. Next year, inflation in Poland will be the highest in the European Union, and GDP will fall

New European Commission forecasts.  Next year, inflation in Poland will be the highest in the European Union, and GDP will fall
Photo: Damien Lugosky/ / stock struggle

The European Commission raised its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2022 to 5.2%. Estimates for 2023 were lowered to 1.5 per cent. – Results of the latest summer predictions round. The European Commission also raised its estimate of HICP inflation in Poland for 2022-2023 to 12.2%, respectively. And 9.0 percent next year, prices on the Vistula River will rise as fast as they can in the European Union.

In May this year. Committee expectedThat Poland’s GDP will increase by 3.7% in 2022 and by 3.0% in 2023. At that time, the European Commission predicted the HICP index in Poland in 2022-2023 at the level of 11.6%, respectively. and 7.3 percent

In the latest report, the Commission confirmed that in the second half of 2022, Poland’s economic growth will slow down due to Russian aggression against Ukraine, monetary policy tightening, deteriorating sentiment and a weak external environment, but the annual dynamics will be 5.2%, mainly. Because of the good Q1

“We expect GDP growth to reach 5.2% in 2022, mainly due to the strength of the first quarter. In contrast, quarterly economic growth will remain below its historical average, at least until the second half of 2023. Excessive impact will lead to GDP growth of 1.5%.” – wrote in the report.

“Private consumption will continue to be supported by refugee demand from Ukraine and continued fiscal expansion. However, consumption growth will follow the pressures of increased uncertainty and monetary tightening, which could be an incentive to save and affect household disposable income, particularly given the volume of loans.” Variable interest rate on a mortgage in Poland “- he added.

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The report’s authors stress that increased cost pressures, heightened uncertainty and tighter monetary conditions will cause companies to postpone their investment plans, including in the construction sector.

“The collapse in trade with Russia and Ukraine and declining demand from Poland’s main trading partners will affect export performance in 2022, resulting in a negative contribution of net exports to this year’s growth. However, as disruptions in global supply chains ease and economic activity rebounds, it should Exports are recovering, the balance is improving, especially at the end of 2023. ” – confirms the European Commission.

The European Commission predicts that HICP inflation in Poland in 2022 will reach 12.2%, and in 2023 it will be at the level of 9.0%. Next year, inflation in Poland will be the highest in the European Union. At the same time, from the European Commission’s point of view, core inflation will remain permanently high over the forecast horizon.

“Rising commodity prices, and growing bottlenecks in demand and supply have contributed to a steady and significant increase in inflation in recent months, to 15.6% in June. Strong dynamics of price growth are expected to continue in 2022 due to rising global energy and food prices and rising inflation. Basically, the latter should remain permanently elevated over the forecast horizon, as higher energy prices, labor shortages and supply bottlenecks will drive up prices for services and industrial goods,” the report wrote.

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“However, weak economic growth, gradual easing of pressures in global chains and lower energy prices are likely to lead to lower inflation at the end of the forecast horizon. As a result, HICP inflation will decline to 9.0% in 2023 from 12.2% in 2023. 2022” – added.

Outlook for the European Union and the Eurozone

In its summer economic outlook released on Thursday, the European Commission expects a record level of inflation this year in the entire European Union and the Eurozone. It also partially lowers the GDP growth forecast.

“The Russian war in Ukraine continues to cast a long shadow over Europe and our economy. We face challenges on many fronts, from rising energy and food prices to highly uncertain global prospects. We are fortunate to start from strength, having survived the previous crisis with a recovery Strong. Growth will slow significantly in the second half of 2022, but accelerate in 2023. With rising inflation and increasingly difficult financing conditions, it will be important to find the right balance between a more conservative fiscal stance and protectionism, “We must,” said European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis. Also reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels.”

EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni echoed what he said: “Moscow’s actions are disrupting energy and grain supplies, raising prices and weakening confidence. … Record high inflation is expected to peak later this year and gradually decline in the 2023. In light of the unknowns about the course of the war and gas supplies, these forecasts are subject to high uncertainty and the risk of regression.”

As the European Commission forecast, the EU economy will grow at a rate of 2.7% in 2022, and 1.5% in 2023. In May, the European Commission forecast similar growth this year, but it forecast 2.3%. in 2023

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The latest forecast assumes growth in the Eurozone at 2.6%. In 2022 and smaller – 1.4 percent. in 2023 (down from 2.3% in the spring forecast).

The European Commission expects inflation to reach an all-time high in 2022, at 7.6%. in the euro area and 8.3 per cent. across the union. In 2023 this indicator will decrease to 4.0%, respectively. and 4.6 percent

ING expert: European Commission forecasts are in line with market expectations

Adam Antuniak, an expert at Olensky’s ING Bank, told AFP that the European Commission’s forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in 2022 and 2023 are in line with market expectations. He added that inflation will remain a problem, among other things, due to the announced increase in regulated energy prices.

“The forecast is in line with market expectations, and it is also in line with the NBP inflation forecast” – commented on the EC post by ING Śląski Bank expert Adam Antoniak.

He pointed out that the correction of economic growth this year. From 3.7 percent to 5.2 is the effect of very high dynamics of Polish GDP growth in the first and second quarters, while in 2023 we will have a severely slowing economic situation with continued high inflation.

“An average annual increase in prices of 9% means that inflation will remain a problem, among other things due to the announced increase in regulated energy prices,” Antoniak told the Palestinian News Agency.

Commenting on the forecast of the European Commission for the eurozone (GDP growth in 2023 at the level of 1.4%), he estimated that the slowdown in Germany, which is one of our main importers, will be especially important for Polish companies.

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source:PAP Biznes