The Central Statistical Office published data on Poland's GDP for 2023. According to preliminary estimates, it was It is 0.2 percent every year. This result is worse than expected – analysts expected a result of 0.5-0.6%. The reading is also the worst since Poland joined the European Union.
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GDP 2023 (quick estimate)
Based on currently available data, the Central Bureau of Statistics also estimated the following growth dynamics of gross value added:
- The total value added in the national economy in 2023 increased by 1.0% compared to 2022, an increase of 5.5%. In 2022,
- The total value added in industry in 2023 decreased by 0.7%. Compared to 2022, an increase of 7.6%. In 2022,
- The total value added in construction in 2023 compared to 2022 increased by 3.4%. Compared to an increase of 5.1%. In 2022,
- Gross value added in trade and reforms in 2023 compared to 2022 decreased by 2.4%. Compared to an increase of 2.3%. In 2022
In their comments on the data, mBank analysts stressed that it represents a “big surprise.” He added, “Growth in 2023 was only 0.2 percent. This means that the fourth quarter was weak. Component results in 2023: private consumption -1 percent, investments +8 percent, domestic demand -4.1 percent.” – said the bank experts.
“Next year will see a noticeable acceleration in economic growth,” write experts from the Polish Economic Institute.
We expect GDP to increase by 2.3%. This will mainly be the effect of a recovery in consumption. A significant increase in the minimum wage and benefit indexation of 500+ will increase household expenses. Against this background, investments will look much weaker. The change in EU budget perspectives will reduce local government spending, while the impact of KPO programs will only be visible in 2025,” we read in a PIE commentary.
GDP is below expectations
Even before the data was published by the Central Statistical Office, PKO BP experts mentioned this The publication of GDP data for 2023 will also allow estimating economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2023.
“We maintain our full-year growth forecast at 0.6%, although given the rather weak December data, we see a risk that the Q4 2023 result will be slightly lower than we had previously assumed, closer to 2.2% y/y, than 2.4% y/y (this would also pose a slight downside risk to our full-year forecast for 2023).”
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