The bill to freeze electricity prices has already been approved by the House of Representatives and submitted to the Senate. If it goes into effect, next year’s home electricity bill increases will be very limited. People who stay within energy consumption will pay for electricity and its distribution as much as they pay now. I remember that Cheap energy will be available up to 2000 kWh per year. Higher limits are set for people with disabilities – 2.6 thousand. kWh, and for farmers and families with at least three children – 3 thousand. kWh.
What prices will consumers pay for electricity consumed in excess of the specified limit? Experts do not have good information here. The energy consumed above the limit may be several times more expensive.
Wholesale energy prices this year are much higher than last year. Therefore, the price of energy for households next year is expected to be much higher in the part of the bill that exceeds the established limit on energy consumption. I think it could be a threefold increase – Piotr Dzięciołowski, analyst at the Brokerage House of Bank Handlowy estimates.
For the energy companies themselves, he adds, this should not pose an additional risk. – Either they will receive compensation from the state for the freezing Electricity prices Up to a specified limit, or money from customers who will pay the market price for the remaining energy used – Dzięciołowski acknowledges.
rallied
Power vendors typically contract the vast majority of power to their customers in the previous year. Therefore, requests to the head of the Energy Regulatory Office to change the tariffs for the sale of electricity to homes are largely based on annual contracts on the Polish Energy Exchange. There, prices reached record levels this year.
Throughout 2021, the average rate in these contracts was 384.16 PLN/MWh. while In May 2022, for the first time, the price of energy with delivery for next year broke 1000. PLN / MWh. It didn’t take long for that amount to double. Already in August, megawatt-hours of energy cost more than 2000. zlotys. Last Monday, the price exceeded 1.7 thousand. PLN/MWh. These high rates are the result of the energy crisis that the whole of Europe is struggling with. In this, rising gas and coal prices are of key importance.
However, forecasting electricity prices for end customers this year is not so simple. Some sellers, observing the standard rates on the exchange, can postpone the contract for the next year. And the coming months will bring us a real revolution in the energy trade.
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– If we look at the annual contracts at TGE, we can conclude that energy prices in 2023 should be three times higher than today. However, we do not know to what extent the energy companies have already contracted for the next year or to what extent the regulator will take that contract into account when setting new tariffs for 2023. Especially that So far – in my opinion – the wholesale price of energy in 2023 is still the biggest unknown – says Paweł Puchalski, Santander BM Analyst.
He explains that this unknown is due to several factors that will have a fundamental impact on it local energy market.
Possible ‘severe fluctuations’
– First, the obligation to sell energy through the exchange is canceled, which will significantly reduce liquidity on the Polish Energy Exchange and will lead to Energy prices will be subject to extreme fluctuations. Second, all major energy producers should theoretically operate in the coming year – in line with the plans of the Ministry of State Assets – as a single entity: tusk. Therefore, we are dealing with the emergence of a monopoly on the energy supply market, and at the same time competitive access to this energy through energy exchange will be limited. – notes Puchalski.
In such a situation, it is difficult to predict how the head of the Office of Energy Regulatory will consider tariff applications for energy companies. – Will it include the power purchase contracts concluded so far, and what price of coal will it assume as the initial price for calculating the target price of electricity for 2023, or will it include in its assumptions the equilibrium market with the theoretical price of electricity of approximately PLN 900 / MWh – the analyst wonders.
However, he is convinced that we will by no means avoid price hikes. – In my opinion, the tariff for next year will be much higher than this year, but the final increase in the tariff remains in the hands of the regulator. And this assumption is important because subsidies to the sales and distribution sectors will pay only up to the value of the tariff set by the regulator – confirms Puchalsky.
a little support
The lack of even a preliminary forecast for energy prices next year has recently led to the Polish government being accused of a Polish smog alert. – This is the main issue. Because today we only know that there is a certain limit on the use of cheaper energy and allowance for people who heat the house with electricity in the amount of 1-1.5 thousand. zloty. For someone uses 9 thousand. kWh of energy per year, this subsidy will be minimal if the electricity bill increases by several thousand – Andrzej Guła, leader of PAS, said in an interview with Business Insider.
By his estimates, about one million households heat their homes with electricity. – These people have no idea what electricity bills will be paid next year – confirmed by air.
disturbing conclusions
The current tariff for selling electricity to households is valid from January 1 until the end of December 2022. Electricity alone rose by 37 percent. every year (about PLN 17 net per month more for the average family), and the entire electricity bill, which, apart from the energy price, also includes a number of other fees, incl. distribution by 24 percent. (about PLN 21 net per month).
Usually, requests from sellers: Polska Grupa Energetyczna, Tauron, Enea and Energa in connection with setting new prices for the next year are submitted to the head of the Energy Regulatory Office in early October-November. while This year, three companies: Tauron, Enea and Energa decided to apply for a change in the tariff already in force. According to our information, companies wanted to introduce price increases of a few percent later this year. As the organizer informed, The companies explained that, among other things, the increased demand for energy by end customers, including additional residents who came to Poland from Ukraine. Meanwhile, in the annual report of Enea, we can see that in the first half of the year, the volume of electricity sales to households in this company did not increase at all, but rather decreased by 6%. every year.
The conclusions of the concerns are so embarrassing that the government has already promised the Poles to freeze electricity prices. Perhaps that is why these applications are still hanging on the desk of the head of the Office of Energy Regulatory. – We’re right at home with them – Press services permit for the authority.
Author: Barbara Oksińska, Business Insider Polska
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