At the moment there is very little information, but it is known that something happened in Przewodów near Tomaszów Lubelski. Most likely it was the remains of a Russian missile.
There are rumors of two missiles, but now available photos show where one was hit. The bullet hit the grain dryer’s trailer or truck scales almost completely, making a large hole, tipping the trailer and damaging the farm tractor. The media reported that the two dead were a weigher and a farmer who delivered the grain. The funnel after the blow has a large diameter, which is somewhat indicative Caliber cruise missile (launched from ships), Ch-101, Ch-555 or even Ch-22 (launched from strategic bombers). It could be close to 100 percent. What is certain is that, regardless of the bullet’s origin, it was not a deliberate attack, but an accidental hit. Who wants to attack the grain dryer? Perhaps there are some more valuable things in Poland… unless someone decides that the target was a village a few kilometers away with the wonderful name of America.
And there is one more thing. It appears there was only one bullet. The location of the second fall is not shown. Presumably someone confused the information “two victims” and “two bullets”. More will be known tomorrow. In any case, today the Russians fired only cruise missiles at Ukraine, that is, missiles that look like a small plane. It is propelled by a ramjet engine, has wings and flies low on a curved trajectory programmed to hit the designated target.
Option 1: A defective Russian missile
The missile that flew towards Lwów from the Black Sea, probably along a broken route to avoid being shot down, passed Lwów, flew another 50-60 km to the north and landed over the Polish border, in Przewodów in Hrubieszów District. The missile’s navigation system may be faulty, because even for not very accurate Russian missiles, deviations from the target exceeding 50 kilometers are too large, however, typical deviations are between 50 and 700 meters. Therefore, the missile must have a navigation system error, which, of course, is the case. Of the thousands of missiles fired by the Russians, many were probably faulty, after all, today one of them fell in Moldova, which no one really cared about.
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Option 2: The missile was damaged by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile
In an attempt to shoot him down, an anti-aircraft missile exploded nearby, scattering a series of shrapnel that would usually destroy the target. Here’s a simple explanation: anti-aircraft missiles have three fuses. One is a contact fuse. It explodes when the projectile hits the target. But a direct hit often fails, so there’s another possibility: a rough valve. They are radar or laser valves that make quick and accurate measurements of the distance to the target. The fuse activates the warhead at a distance of less than 15 or 10 meters – depending on its combat power.
As long as the distance decreases, the fuse does not work. But as soon as the distance starts to increase, the detonation of the warhead begins immediately. The cloud of shrapnel delivered by the warhead usually penetrates and destroys the target. But it happens that only the target is damaged. In this case, the navigation system could have been severely damaged and the missile would still have been airworthy. It flew uncontrollably until it ran out of fuel and landed in a random place.
The third option: firing a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile at a Russian cruise missile
Due to a malfunction, the missile can fly up to 50 or 70 km and fall in a random place. However, this is not likely. Note that we described the actions of two anti-aircraft missile fuzes above, yet we mentioned that there were three. The third is self-destruct – either activated by a radio command at the command of the anti-aircraft system operator, or acting automatically when the missile has traveled a certain distance without control commands. It could happen that for some reason the self-destruction did not work and the anti-aircraft missile got completely out of control.
Two things speak against this theory. First, it will only play its role Favorite system S-300PMAnd such Ukraine has few. According to available information, they defend Kyiv and Kharkov. Other missile systems are too small for such a range, and the warhead can produce such a powerful explosion. The funnel pictured indicates a Russian winged missile.
The photo of the alleged missile wreckage (above) doesn’t say much. It is not even known if it was part of a bullet at all, it could be part of a charge scale or a tractor engine. Even if it was actually the remains of a missile, it was still difficult to match it to something.
Russian missile in Poland. how to deal?
Incident is not qualified to provoke art. 5, any deliberate attack on the state For this, but is eligible to run Art. 4, that is, urgent consultations with allies in order to take measures to prevent similar incidents in the future.
For various reasons, this incident cannot remain unanswered nor can it be a verbal protest. There should be some tightening on the part of NATO, and the best response is to increase military aid to Ukraine. This is an opportunity to pass it on to her ATACMS missile systems To hit targets at a distance of up to 300 km, perhaps even Western combat aircraft. A no-fly zone could also be established over western Ukraine as a precautionary measure, but this would be too close to direct NATO involvement in the war. However, one must proceed with caution so as not to provoke a stupid reaction from Russia.
Therefore, the optimal answer would be ATACMS for Ukraine, and the ideal answer would be the F-16. We’ll see what the leaders of the alliance countries will do. However, we hope that everyone in the West already knows that Russia understands only the language of force. And since she pushed us by mistake, someone has to react or he won’t understand.
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