- As the ISW writes, everything points to the general exhaustion of the Russian forces as well as disorganization and dispersal of forces on individual sectors of the front
- The exception is the section in the Zaporozhye region, where the Russians had the opportunity to build a defense due to the lack of active battles on this section, and the Russian side focused on defensive activities
- At the same time, the ISW estimates that Russian commanders at the tactical and even operational level are “not ready for the challenges that are likely to await them.”
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The ISW has conducted a comprehensive analysis of Russian front line forces based on publicly available sources. He concluded, “Most maneuverable elements available from all military districts, as well as most airborne forces, are already committed to the front line for offensive or defensive operations.”
As the ISW wrote, everything indicated the general exhaustion of the Russian forces as well as disorganization and dispersal of forces on individual sectors of the front. In the event of a massive counterattack, this would be a serious obstacle to Russia’s defense of important sectors of the front.
The ISW indicates that for the purposes of its analysis, it assumes (which it is unable to verify) that the Ukrainian side is capable of carrying out a large-scale coordinated attack using nine brigades.
Analyzing the state of the Russian forces on the front, which are divided into seven main directions, the ISW estimates that the Russian formations are “largely decentralized and degraded,” and in most cases one can speak of fatigue and a lack of proper organization.
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The exception is the section in the Zaporozhye region, where the Russians had the opportunity to build up a defense due to the lack of active battles on this section, and the Russian side focused on defensive activities. On the one hand, these are forces consisting mainly of volunteers and volunteers.
The Institute of Internal Affairs estimates that the Russians are striving to capture all of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region before the Ukrainian counter-offensive begins.
According to experts, “Russia’s obsession with small-scale tactical offensive operations has led to a situation where the army is unprepared to respond to a large-scale mechanized counterattack.”
“These small attacks do not require special command and control capabilities (…). Defensive maneuvers in the case of a massive counterattack are more complex and require committed command and control of large units over a large area” – writes the ISW, assessing that commanders at the tactical and even operational level “are not They are prepared for the challenges that are likely to await them.
An additional factor that may affect the ability to act in conditions of a massive counterattack is the fact that most units have been supplemented with musters who are “not emotionally and intellectually ready” to fight in such conditions.
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