October 6, 2022

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The Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates to 4.5%.  We know how much the premiums will increase

The Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates to 4.5%. We know how much the premiums will increase

From 7 April 2022 The reference rate will be 4.50 per cent.Which means that the MPC decided to raise 100 basis points. Market expectations did not expect such high growthThis is due to the fact that the zloty exchange rate is slowly stabilizing after the turmoil in February-March.

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Still though There is a need to combat inflation and hence this significant increase. Inflation – according to GUS data – is already at 10.9%, so monetary tightening should not be surprising.

WIBOR has already taken into account the price increase

Under standard conditions in the economy, WIBOR should be about 0.25 percentage points. higher than the key interest rate. However, remember that it is the average interest rate on the interbank market, so banks based on the valuation of futures contracts can predict what will happen in the future.

In recent months, WIBOR has reacted disproportionately to the level of interest rate hikes. With a high degree of probability, its current level has partially taken into account upcoming Board decisions to tighten monetary policy. Therefore, it should not grow too fast, Which is good news for borrowers.

How much will mortgage payments increase again?

Market forecasts indicate that WIBOR in May 2022 should not exceed 6%. Therefore, for the purposes of calculating the change in mortgage payments, we assumed WIBOR 3M to be 5.60%.

Of course you can see it all the time Loan installments will increase Again, but perhaps not as much as in recent months. However, these are only predictions, so it is worth following the WIBOR readings. Remember that banks update interest rates once every three or six months, So when the bank calculates the new premiums, for example in January-April, the premium increase will be even sharper, because at the beginning of the year WIBOR 3M was about 2.5%.

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However, there is light at the end of the tunnel because When interest rates go up, banks are willing to cut profit margins which are fixed throughout the life of the loan. Since the beginning of October, average margins have fallen by about 0.3 percentage points since the beginning of October. It is worth taking advantage of that and thinking about refinancing your commitment. There is a good chance that another bank will now offer us better terms.

Finally, it is important to remember that the economy has already felt the effects of aggressive policies. On the other hand, it may in the long run lead to stagnation and increase in unemployment. Therefore, these two forces must be balanced, so the challenge for the MPC.

Anna Serafin – expert on the financial comparison site Totalmoney.pl.