June 9, 2023

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The heat pump market has “almost stopped”. How much does installation cost now?

The year 2022 ended with record heat pump sales in Poland, reaching 203.3 thousand. pieces of hardware. This means an increase of 120%. every year. According to estimates by the Polish Organization for the Development of Heat Pump Technology (PORT PC), last year almost every space heater sold in Poland was a heat pump.

“The period of rapid growth in interest in pumps has passed. At present, the heating equipment market has almost come to a standstill Paweł Lachman, President of PORT PC, told Business Insider. He explains that this is related to the uncertainty currently prevailing in the local energy market. – Potential investors do not know in which direction the Polish energy strategy (PEP 2040) will go. People interested in replacing heating do not have information about electricity and gas prices in the coming yearsThere are no clear signals from the government in which direction state support will go. This is why we need an updated government energy policy to 2040 to see what the approach will be, for example for gas boilers in single-family homes, Lachman explains.

The government’s work on updating PEP 2040 is delayed, but the document is likely to be approved by Cabinet later this month. People interested in purchasing heat pumps may also hold back decisions in anticipation of the announcement of new subsidies for heating appliances under the popular My Electricity program, which previously launched the home photovoltaic market.

The sale of heat pumps in Poland breaks new records every year.

The sale of heat pumps in Poland breaks new records every year.


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There are no fitters

Market uncertainty and clients’ refusal to make investment decisions are not the only problems that representatives of this industry face. The market is growing exponentially, but the industry lacks specialists capable of handling such a large number of orders.

2022 is the fifth year in a row that the Polish market has grown by nearly 100%. every year. These growth dynamics make it extremely important in the context of maintaining the further development of the market to ensure the availability of installers who will meet the growing demand – emphasizes Pawe Bernatowski, Managing Director of Woltair Polska. – Poland lacks accurate data on the required number of mechanics, but if we compare our country with Germany, where more than 200,000 new machines have been installed, it requires hiring an additional 100,000 people. Specialists, we can assume that Tens of thousands of new experts are needed in our market Prepare.

It is a significant challenge because, compared to photovoltaics, heat pump installation is more invasive, rarely repeatable and requires more extensive efficiencies of the installation team. – The installer must have knowledge of construction fields such as: electricity, hydraulics, automation, heating and cooling. It is important to Installing a heat pump requires a lot of building intervention and integration with electrical and heating circuits. Incorrect assembly can lead to increased operating costs, building overheating, or frequent breakdowns. That is why one of the main issues is the proper training of installers or the retraining of specialists in industries that will be phased out. Vocational education today also does not keep up with demand, so We expect a trend of changes in the qualifications of gas fitters – From the perspective of EU regulations, there may be less work in this area in a few years, Bernatowski argues.

We are already seeing a sharp decline in interest in gas boilers. According to Polska Spółka Gazownictwa in response to Business Insider’s questions, in 2022 it got 55 percent. Fewer requests to issue conditions for connecting to the gas network compared to the previous year. The decline in interest in gas facilities was mainly influenced by geopolitical events, including the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the suspension of gas supplies through the Yamal gas pipeline to Europe. All this translated into instability in the gas market and rapid fluctuations in gas prices on stock exchanges. As a result, the landlords quit installing gas boilers.

Price is key

currently 20,000 for a heat pump installation up to 60-70 thousand PLN, although there are devices worth 100 thousand. zlotys. It all depends on the type of pump, the technology used, the manufacturer, and the installed power.

– Inflation, of course, also affects heating appliances, especially those manufactured in the West. In Germany, for example, industrial production costs have risen sharply, as have pumping prices Lachman says.

According to EHPA data, it’s currently about 65 percent. Heat pumps that are installed in Europe are also manufactured in Europe. In the coming years, the supply of devices manufactured in Poland will increase significantly, because the construction of two large factories in our country is underway. However, it is difficult to predict how this will affect prices for customers. Much will depend on state financial support for Polish producers. In my opinion, without this, it would be difficult to talk about improving the situation in the domestic heat pump market, – the head of the PORT PC appeals.

confirm it Today, the state subsidy for gas is much greater than the subsidy for electricity, which is necessary for the operation of the heat pump. – However, in the following years, as the head of the Energy Regulatory Bureau has already announced, there are no reasons for electricity prices to rise as they are now. It is expected that there are many indications of the disappearance of gas boilers from the market and their replacement by heat pumps.

As of the beginning of 2023, home heating costs broken down by individual heating appliances can be seen in the chart below, compiled by the industry’s Energy Efficiency Reserve Agreement.

Sample annual cost of heating a new building of 150 square meters in the program standard "keep warm" Besides the cost of preparing domestic hot water for a family of four.  Data includes energy costs in the first quarter of 2023 (PLN/annually)

An example of the annual cost of heating a new building of 150 square meters in the “My Heat” program standard, as well as the cost of preparing hot water for a family of four. Data includes energy costs in the first quarter of 2023 (PLN/annually)


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new subsidies

Homeowners’ reluctance to purchase a heat pump may be related to the waiting for subsidies under the “My Electricity” program, which has so far encouraged mainly the installation of home photovoltaics. The new fifth version of this software is scheduled to start in the second half of April and will also include support for heat pumps.

– We meet the votes coming from the beneficiaries. In the Clean Air programme, the solid fuel boiler must be replaced in order to use the auxiliary components. A gas boiler cannot be left on as top heating and have a heat pump backed up. And that’s why, To take care of the needs and expectations of people who cannot use Clean Air, we add heat pumps to My Electricity – Pawe Mirowski, vice president of the National Trust for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFEPWM), explained in an interview with PAP.

The fund proposes that the amount of subsidies for heat pumps should be: PLN 4.4 thousand. PLN for air pumps, up to PLN 12.6 thousand. PLN for air and water pumps without increasing efficiency, up to PLN 19.4 thousand. PLN for air and water pumps of increased efficiency and up to PLN 28,000. PLN for floor pumps. At the same time, it will be possible to receive subsidies for solar panels.

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