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The fourth wave of the pandemic in Europe.  Why "out of control" in Poland?

The fourth wave of the pandemic in Europe. Why “out of control” in Poland?

The average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants is higher in many EU countries than in Poland. However, in terms of the number of coronavirus tests carried out, we are last in the European Union. Therefore, according to experts, we are no longer in control of new infections.

The epidemic is booming and the tide is already out of control.” Male on November 3 Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski, Supreme Medical Council expert on COVID-19. Presenting the current epidemiological situation, he warned: “We should expect that in the next few weeks we will cross more limits – 15, 20 or even 30 thousand cases per day. It is very easy to transmit the delta variant and it is now infecting entire populations. . “

Other experts confirm. “No serious and great wave has yet come,” she said. on TVN24 Dr.. Grażyna Cholewińska-Szymańska, infectious disease specialist from the District Infectious Hospital in Warsaw. “Previous forecasts clearly showed an increase in the incidence in Poland after October 20. That’s for sure. But when you look at these forecasts, you can clearly see that the huge increase in this curve is between November 8 and 15” – she added. Bawi Zmora, a virologist from the Institute of Organic Biochemistry of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Pozna, in an interview with Polish Press Agency On October 31, he said, “We are no longer in control of new infections. In two to three weeks we will have the peak of the fourth wave.” On Friday, November 5, the Ministry of Health had already reported 15,904 new infections and 152 deaths from COVID-19.

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Grzesiowski: We expect further increases in the next 4-6 weeks Video: tvn24

Which countries in the European Union are currently experiencing the most difficult epidemic situation and how does Poland compare to it? Well, the data on the number of infections in our country compared to other European countries would have been reassuring – were it not for the statistics of the tests performed. They explain experts’ claims about the “out of control wave”.

Average weekly infections per million inhabitants: Poland is 19th in the European Union

The average number of weekly infections per million inhabitants is one indicator It allows to compare the dynamics of infection in countries with different populations. The higher the average, the more alarming the situation in a particular country.

Our World in Data for November 4th on average weekly infections per million population for the 27 countries of the European Union The most difficult positions turned out to be in Estonia (1,366.1), Slovenia (1202) and Latvia (1,159.9). Less than a thousand but more than 500 the weekly average was in Lithuania (985), Croatia (876.8), Slovakia (784.4), Austria (674), Bulgaria (642.2), Belgium (634.1), the Czech Republic (599.5), Ireland (580.4) and Romania (517.1).

In comparison with these countries, the situation in our country was better: on November 4, Poland was ranked 19th (with a weekly average of 233.3) out of the 27 EU countries. The graph below shows the dynamics of the average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants since September 15 in Poland and in 10 countries At the highest rate at the moment.

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Average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants - 10 EU countries have the highest average compared to Poland (September 15 - November 4, 2021)
Average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants – 10 EU countries have the highest average compared to Poland (September 15 – November 4, 2021) Foto: Our World in Data / ourworldindata.org

In Estonia, a steady increase in average infections has been observed since mid-September, while in Slovenia the situation began to deteriorate in mid-October – the previously analyzed average in this country was between 380 and just over 500. In Latvia, infections began to Increase at the end of October, similarly in Lithuania. In Bulgaria, the average weekly number of infections has been on the rise since the second half of October, but the trend started to slow at the end of the month.

The average infection in Poland began to rise in the second half of October – October 19, and was 74.2; October 22 – 106.2; November 4 – 233.3 already.

as a greeting percent fully vaccinated against COVID-19 In these countries, as of November 3, they were as follows: Belgium – 73.7%, Lithuania – 64.3%, Austria – 62.4%, Czech Republic – 57.1%, Latvia – 55.8%, Slovenia – 53.9%, Croatia – 44.3% and Slovakia 42.3% and Bulgaria 22.5%. However, in Poland the proportion was 52.9 percent.

Poland versus the neighbors

We also compared how the average weekly number of infections per million population has changed at our neighbors: in Germany, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. Compared to these countries, Poland’s situation looks better – only Belarus has a lower average (209.2). But it is the only country that, according to reports this fall, has not seen an increase in infections, which makes the numbers questionable.

Average Weekly Infections Per Million Population - Poland vs. Neighbors (September 15-November 4, 2021)
Average Weekly Infections Per Million Population – Poland vs. Neighbors (September 15-November 4, 2021) Foto: Our World in Data / ourworldindata.org

The highest weekly rate of infection per million inhabitants was recorded in Lithuania (985) on 4 November, followed by Slovakia (784.4), the Czech Republic (599.5), Ukraine (533), and Germany (286.7).

These European countries have previously suffered from the largest waves of pollution. How is she now?

In contrast, some European countries where previous waves of infection were particularly strong now have some of the lowest weekly infection rates per million inhabitants – with one exception. on the graph present Averages for: Great Britain, France, Portugal, Italy and Spain (dynamics from 15 September to 4 November).

Average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants for: Great Britain, France, Portugal, Italy and Spain (September 15 - November 4, 2021)
Average weekly number of infections per million inhabitants for: Great Britain, France, Portugal, Italy and Spain (September 15 – November 4, 2021) Foto: Our World in Data / ourworldindata.org

On November 4, the analyzed average for Spain was only 41.7 – the lowest in the European Union. in Italy it was 74.5; In Portugal – 83.1, in France – 92.9. in these countries Population Percentage Vaccination with all required doses of the vaccine is high and amounts to: in Portugal – 87.4 per cent. (As of November 1), Spain – 79.9%, Italy – 71.8%, France – 68.1%. (The last three – as of November 3).

In contrast, the situation in Great Britain is different. There, since September 15, the average number of weekly infections per million inhabitants has been much higher; On October 23, it was 695.4. In the past two weeks, it has started declining to 574.3 (November 4). By November 3, 67.1 percent were fully vaccinated. Great Britain’s population – the lowest among the five countries analyzed here.

“Out of control wave”? Because we do the fewest tests in the EU

Dr. Bowie Grzysiewski on November 3 rememberOfficial statistics indicate that more than 3 million people have been infected with the Corona virus since the beginning of the epidemic in Poland, and 77,000 people have died. These data, in his opinion, are significantly underestimated. “We estimate that the true number of infections in Poland has exceeded 15 million, and the number of deaths is about 140 thousand. We should look at COVID not as if the virus wants us to think that it is a rare disease that rarely leads to serious complications “- said Grzesiowski.

The statistics of COVID-19 infection tell only about the infections detected. This is confirmed by a coronavirus test. And the test is not good for us. Our World in Data shows that we do the fewest number of tests in the European Union. We show in the graph Average number of weekly tests per thousand inhabitants In the European Union as of 1 November (latest statistics available).

On that day, Poland was last in the European Union – an average of 1.35 per thousand inhabitants. Finland had a slightly higher average – 1.45 (as of October 30); Germany – 1.52; The Netherlands – 1.58 and Sweden – 1.78 (for the last three countries – as of October 24).

Average weekly number of COVID-19 tests per 1000 inhabitants in EU countries, as of 1 November 2021
Average weekly number of COVID-19 tests per 1000 inhabitants in EU countries, as of 1 November 2021 Foto: Our World in Data / ourworldindata.com

The largest number of tests per 1000 population was carried out in Cyprus on average – 53.4; in Austria – 36.5; Greece – 18.7; Denmark – 14.4 and in Lithuania – 11.9 (for all as of October 31).

author: Gabriella Sischowska

Source: Konkret24; Photo: Robin Utrecht/ABACA/PAP