In March 2023, the inflation rate was 16.1%. According to the latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. At the same time, the core inflation rate is 12.2%. Therefore, the following months will bring only a slight decrease in inflation – we expect that in April it will reach 14.5-15 percent. The changes will mainly relate to a slower increase in food prices compared to the previous year. PIE experts say core inflation will remain high.
On the policy of the Monetary Policy Board in the context of persistent inflation above the NBP inflation target in an interview with wnp.pl portal said Stanislaw Gomoka, economist at the Business Center Club and former deputy finance minister. At the same time, he warned that the method of reducing inflation with the lowest possible social cost threatens us to enter the “swamp zone”.
If we continue the low-cost social policy to reduce inflation, we risk getting into a quagmire that is difficult to get out of. I am talking about a quagmire in the form of well above target inflation with very low GDP growth. In addition, we will have another strong blow to family savings. They lose with rising inflation, because it raises real interest rates to negative levels, as the economist points out and states that keeping the key interest rate at 6.75 percent means that in real terms we still have negative interest rates at around -10%.
In Gomutka’s view, without a decision to raise interest rates further, which would be “expensive from a social point of view”, there would be no chance of fighting inflation effectively.
– It seems that raising the interest rate in Poland to the range of 8-10% is justified. The economist adds that without such a step, it will be difficult to push inflation towards the target.
Poland’s inflation target is 2.5%. With a possible deviation of 1 p. on each side.
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