March 21, 2023


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Surprise in the United States.  Inflation is lower than expected

Surprise in the United States. Inflation is lower than expected

The market has been eagerly awaiting data on inflation in the world’s largest economy. Analysts expected the latest US CPI reading to lead to a slight dip in price growth in October.

It should be noted that the US consumer price index inflation reached 8.2% in September. (on an annual basis).

The October inflation reading is key to the Fed’s interest rate decisions. There is no shortage of expectations that at the end of the year (during the December meeting) the Fed will continue to raise rates (even by 75 basis points).

At the beginning of November, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points. The prime rate was in the range of 3.75-4.0%. The next meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled for December 13-14.


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We still have room for a further rate hike. In the United States, despite the growth rate of interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during the conference after the Federal Reserve’s November meeting that he will have to go down eventually.

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At some point, it will be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate growth in order to bring inflation down to the 2% target. The Fed chief indicated that there is a great deal of uncertainty around this level of interest rates.

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According to TMS Brokers analysts (comment from November 10, 2022), inflation in the United States has turned out to be permanent. “Until a few months ago, the Fed said it was a temporary phenomenon. The annual rate of change in the CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, and only declined slightly to 8.2% by September.” TMS Brokers experts wrote.

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