May 17, 2022

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Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Oil and gas prices have breached psychological levels

Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oil and gas prices have breached psychological levels

Brent crude price in world markets by more than 8 percent. The rate broke at $105 on Thursday. barrel (66 cents a liter). This is the highest level since September 2014.

All of this has an effect Russia’s planned cut off from SwiftWhich would prevent all sales of oil and gas from that country. Then the financial institutions will have almost no technical ability to transfer money to Russia. On the other hand, there are already voices from Brussels The disconnection of SWIFT will not be immediate, because it could make it difficult to recover more than $30 billion. The debts of Russian companies owe to Russian companies, most of which European banks borrowed.

Russia is the second largest oil exporter in the world after Saudi Arabia, about 11 percent. Global exports of this raw material. Perhaps the OPEC countries will try to increase supply, but the potential loss of a ninth of crude oil from the market justifies a sharp rise in prices.

Fuel prices in Poland are still low, but they won’t last long

Wholesale prices for diesel fuel in Orlin on Wednesday remained at the level of Wednesday, that is, PLN 5.15 per liter, but In view of the increase in the cost of purchasing oil, it will be difficult to bear it in the coming days. As the zloty increased, it lost 1.8 percent against the dollar. And it broke the level of PLN 4.1 on Thursday, which will increase the cost of raw materials purchased by refineries in Poland.

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At most Orlen . stations The price remained around PLN 5.50 per liter on Thursday – Produced from cenapaliw.pl website data. During the week, the wholesale price of diesel fuel increased by only PLN 0.08, and for the month by PLN 0.13. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude rose by $9 for the week. per barrel, which is 6 cents per liter, and in a month at about $ 16, which is 10 cents. This means that Orlen wholesale prices do not take into account a significant part of the increases in the cost of raw materials and the decrease in the zloty exchange rate.

A comparison of Orlen wholesale prices and Brent crude prices shows that Prices at stations may soon rise to a minimum of 0.20 PLN. per literClose to PLN 5.70 or higher. Great as a result Anti-inflation shields Only about 0.30 PLN were left by the Polish government. Lower prices at stations, and higher oil prices could wipe out their effect completely. Of course, without them, we would have had fuel prices close to 7 PLN per liter.

Gases are sharper than oil

At the same time, Dutch gas contracts for March delivery in Europe increased by 30 percent. Up to 115 euros per megawatt-hour. They last hit the highest level on December 23.


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These increases are already hitting our economy, as they affect TGE’s wholesale prices. Gas on the Warsaw Stock Exchange rose on Wednesday from 370 PLN to PLN 392 per megawatt-hour, the highest level this year. Further rate increases can be expected on Thursday.

These prices and the expected decrease in supply mean problems for the entire continent. Russia provided Europe last year with as much as 36 percent of natural gas supplies – according to an analysis by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). For Germany, this accounts for more than half of the births. In the case of Poland, up to 46 per cent. Last year’s consumption was gas from the East, that is, from Russia – Results of the presentation of PGNiG on the results of 2021. The new Baltic gas pipeline, which imports blue fuel from Norwegian fields and partially replaces supplies from Russia, is likely to be ready only at the end of this year.

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