on the other side In the secondary market, the situation is reversed. Sellers are not willing to discount at all. However, experts explain this by the fact that the secondary market reacts with a lag in trends that appear earlier in the market for new apartments. Therefore, in their opinion, the current supply prices in the secondary market do not reflect the actual price level. – Experts admit that it is difficult for sellers to come to terms with the fact that prices have stopped rising.
Developers outpace each other in promotions, so far no one wants to hear about discounts in the secondary market
There is no trace of last year’s queues in the developers’ offices. This is why promotions are dominating their offerings lately. Rednet Consulting’s analysis shows that often a garage or storage room is included in the price of an apartment on a promotional basis.
Other suggestions include finishing the apartment on a turnkey basis at a competitive price. There are also gift cards that can be used at DIY stores, and even spa vouchers. In addition, developers offer discounts on the price per square meter of an apartment, usually from PLN 500 to PLN 1,000. PLN per square metre
In the secondary market, the situation is completely different, although prices for used buildings are also high. The latest report from Expander and Rentier.io makes this clear Compared to May 2022, prices in the secondary market declined in 14 out of 17 cities. The largest deductions occurred in Czestochowa (8.6%), Sosnowiec (8.4%) and Katowice (7.5%).
But in the case of Three Cities, there were big surprises. In Rzeszow, compared to May, housing prices by 4%, and in Bydgoszcz by 2%, similar to Lublin.
However, it turned out that this was not a permanent trend, because a few weeks after the end of the study, the situation in these cities changed, and prices fell again.
– Indeed, in September, a record price increase was recorded in Rzeszow, but, in turn, apartments in this city became cheaper in October, as was the case in Lublin, – says Jaroslaw Sadowski, chief analyst at Expander.
At the same time, he adds, there is currently a clear downward trend across the country. – At the moment, prices are only going up in Bydgoszcz, but that may be due to the local advertising structure. Bydgoszcz’s offer could include, for example, more expensive apartments with the so-called top shelf, which would have increased the average price in the city – explains the analyst Expander.
In his opinion, a lot of time is needed to accurately assess how prices will change, especially in the secondary market. It is also worth noting that this market always reacts with a long delay to real estate market trends. – At the moment, sellers are not yet willing to lower prices, but this may change soon, – he explains.
The rest of the article is under the video
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Expert: NBP data will only show real price dynamics
Bartosz Turek, senior analyst at HRE Investments, states that the amount of bid prices depends on many factors. – The reason for the decrease in prices in some cities may be, for example, the introduction of more apartments in the offer At a lower level and in a worse location,” he explains.
As the expert says so developers react faster to the market environment, this is the reason In the new apartments sector, there was an earlier price correction. In addition, lower prices in the new housing market may be due to the fact that developers are now introducing cheaper units to their offering, and previously selling more expensive units.
However, according to him, what matters above all is the price research methodology. – Therefore, until we see stable NBP data on price trends in the housing market, it is difficult to make judgments today, – he adds.
Why is it so important? – NBP also takes into account housing standard, location, and even the type of technology, whether it’s a large slab, for example. Until such data appears, it is difficult to ascertain with full responsibility whether prices have actually fallen – says Bartosz Turek.
Thanks to credit holidays, we avoided a negative scenario
Both experts agree that the coming year will be very difficult for the real estate market, which will also translate into price opportunities.
– Both this year and next will be a good time for property buyers, because they have more negotiating power than before – assesses Bartosz Turek.
Jarosław Sadowski, in turn, draws attention to another major issue. in his opinion The price drop could be much higher if there was no boom in the rental market and no credit holidays offered.
What could happen next? The expert paints a very pessimistic possible scenario.
– If there are no credit holidays, there may already be a collapse in the real estate market. He explains that many people whose premiums have increased at least twice could not afford it, which would lead to a wave of apartment sales.
In his opinion, a lot of advertisements for the sale of apartments may suddenly appear on the market. Many people, trapped by high premiums, will also be more willing to lower prices.
“Fortunately, that did not happen. As a result, there are no price drops of ten percent or so, only a correction of a few percent. At present, the offer for sale includes apartments purchased for investment purposes on credit. Usually, it is no longer a premium The loan covers potential rental profits.However, sellers of these properties will not wait indefinitely for buyers and soon may be more willing to lower prices, he claims.
Therefore, the expert believes that we are not in danger of repeating 2008, when prices began to fall sharply. He also contributes to it The situation in the rental market. Many owners of apartments that were not bought on credit, so there is no great pressure to sell them, as they can rent out profitably.
In 2024, two phenomena may collide in the real estate market
Our interlocutors unanimously assure that today they can expect anything, because the situation on the real estate market is dynamic. However, it is an alarming phenomenon The supply of new apartments has shrunk. According to the latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, in October, developers started building 7.1 thousand square meters. New apartments. That’s more than 44 percent. Less than the same period last year. This is also the worst October result since 2013.
“It is a very noticeable change. In two years, developers will offer much less apartments than in previous years. The problem is that if the supply of ready-made apartments is smaller, and the demand is high, this will affect apartment prices, which are likely to increase, Bartosz Turek predicts.
In this context, it is mentioned that the optimistic forecasts of the National Bank of Poland assume that salaries will continue to grow, and that interest rates will begin to decline at the turn of 2023 and 2024, which will improve the creditworthiness of Poles.
– These factors may cause a recovery in housing demand. Then it may happen that with the increase in the demand for housing, the prices of land and building materials will also rise, and the construction team will also raise prices, which will lead to an increase in apartment prices again. – the judges.
He adds that no one can forget the growing number of foreigners and refugees who have to live somewhere. As a result, a difficult situation in the real estate market may appear already in 2024. – I expect that the limited supply in the housing market will conflict with the growing demand, which will lead to dynamic price increases. Say the Turk.
The new housing program may change the situation in the real estate market
However, Jaroslav Sadovsky believes that the assumption that housing prices will start rising again in 2024 is overly optimistic. Next year will indeed be a good time for homebuyers, but it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen in a couple of years. there are many reasons. Or not We still don’t know how long interest rates will remain high, which is a major factor. In addition, it is still uncertain whether interest rates will be cut at the end of next year, he says.
According to him, even in the most optimistic scenario, if there are rate cuts at the end of next year – In any case, it will take some time before interest rates fall to a level that will lead to an increase in the availability of credit.
At the same time, Sadowski reminds us that parliamentary elections are coming next year. – It cannot be ruled out that if a new housing program, which was recently mentioned by the government, is launched next year, then a lot may change – he sums up.
Agnieszka Zielińska, journalist, money.pl
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