Although the vast majority of us will benefit from the Polish Lada, it is easier to trace among … families with children. After the changes made in the course of legislative work, the program took on a new form. Its impact on individual types of families was investigated by economists from the CenEA Center for Economic Analysis.
- The changes proposed by PiS as part of the Polish deal will affect 12.3 million households out of 13.8 million in Poland.
- The remaining 1.5 million families will not face major changes, as they will range from PLN 9.99 per month to PLN 9.99 per month
- Yes. 800 thousand families will lose in the Polish Lada, of which up to 300 thousand. It will be a decrease in monthly income from PLN 250 and more
- Interestingly, the analysis of economists shows that the people most likely to lose are in the group of … families with children. On the other hand, the most profitable group is among the marriages of retired people
- More such information can be found on the Onet homepage
When the government presented the Polish deal program in mid-May, it assured that everything had been carefully calculated and thought out. Five months later, it turns out that the main PiS software looks very different than it did less than six months ago.
All as a result of calls from employers’ and businessmen’ organizations, who pointed out that the solutions proposed by the Law and Justice Act would essentially lose the middle class and entrepreneurs.
Including this is why the government decided to change several key items and today the program has a completely different effect on Polish families. when? CenEA analysts – Michał Myck, Monika Oczkowska and Kajetan Trzciński analyzed it thoroughly.
In the analysis presented for the purposes of the work of the Senate, we read that in comparison with the May form of the Polish deal, the balance of the program today has changed significantly. Originally, it amounted to 5.1 billion PLN. More specifically: On the one hand, some Poles will have an additional PLN 28.8 billion in their wallets each year, and on the other hand, the government will extract PLN 23.7 billion from the pockets of other citizens. The difference is 5.1 billion PLN.
This is how the costs of the Polish deal changed after 5 months of work.
According to the current form of Poland, the arrangement is more favorable. Well, the profits of most Poles will rise to a total of 32.1 billion PLN, and losses will decrease to 15.6 billion PLN. So the new balance sheet is 16.5 billion PLN. This is more than three times the original assumption.
Who will win and who will lose?
The above table shows how the distribution of the number of families that will gain in the Polish Lada in relation to the families lost.
According to a CenEA analysis, as many as 11.5 million households will be positive. Each of them will receive at least 10 PLN per month, and some will receive even more. But more on that later in the article.
At the other end, there are 800,000. Families who may curse the solutions contained in the Polish Lada. Up to 300,000 of them will lose at least 250 PLN per month, and half a million households will see a decrease in monthly income, ranging from PLN 10 to PLN 250.
Analysts failed to include as many as 1.5 million households in any of these groups. In their case, there will be no Polish bargain, because there will be no gains or losses. And even if they do appear, they are small enough to be practically imperceptible.
The paradox of families with children and single parents
It is easy to see that losses at the Polish Lada will be less than 6 percent. families. More than one out of twenty.
CenEA analysts have been inclined to estimate which families will lose the most. To this end, they identified six types of farms:
- single parents
- Marriages without children
- Families with children
- Seniors Singles 60/65 +
- Adult Marriage 60/65 +
Ironically – in light of the support for families often expressed by the PiS government – The largest group of the lost among families with children. I am talking about those who will lose at least 250 PLN per month. There are more than 4 percent of them. An additional 3.5% will lose between PLN 10 and PLN 250 per month.
“Among people aged 60/65 and over who pay independently, 23% will benefit from repairs not exceeding PLN 100 per month, and for more than 71.2% benefits will be in the range of PLN 100-250 per month. On the other hand, the benefits of marriage for people aged 60/65 and above deserve special attention, and among them almost 80% will receive benefits over PLN 250 per month.“- we read in the analysis of CenEA economists.
For some single parents, it will be difficult to exclude the possibility of a joint settlement with the child. It will be transferred to a tax credit of 1.5 thousand. PLN per year.
“On the basis of the approved regulations, people who raise their children alone lose if they earn more than 9,130 PLN total per month. With incomes higher than PLN 15,040 total per month, the losses of these families are It will be above a thousand PLN per month– note the experts.
The effect is different from the assumptions
Economists suggest that middle-income families will benefit more from the Polish Lada. Here, the monthly profit comes to about 270 PLN per month.
In turn, the richest families will have to take into account that their income will decrease by 775 PLN per month. We’re talking about 10 percent. the richest families.
CenEA analysts also point out something else. Well, the program that was supposed to end the “regressive tax system” is actually exacerbating this regression. examples?
“The tax exemption for families 4+ (…) causes the state to support the fourth child in the family For low-income families, it is 4.6 times lower than for high-income families– We read in the study.
At the same time, the exemption can be settled on both a tax scale and a flat rate. The program was supposed to reduce the attractiveness of the “liner”.
Third, however, joint settlement between spouses essentially promotes better income earners. Especially when one is making money and the other for example is not working.
Polish deal stains. What will eventually be included in the program?
If the Polish deal passes through the Senate in the same way it left the Chamber of Deputies, then the most important element of the program will be: increasing the free amount to 30,000 PLN. PLN and a tax threshold of up to 120 thousand. zloty.
In addition, the government is changing the accounting rules for health insurance contributions, thus offering an exemption to the middle class. On the other hand, large families and single parents are waiting for additional benefits, but the latter at the same time eliminates the possibility of settling accounts with the child.
Parents of the second and subsequent child will be able to count on him 12 thousand PLN Family Caring CapitalYoung people will get a loan without their own contribution. We describe all the changes in detail in Business Insider Polska.
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