“Taking into account the signs of global economic cooling (another wave of COVID-19 cases) and the negative surprise from domestic investment in the second quarter of 2021, we are revising our forecast for economic growth in 2021 to 5.0% from the 5.5% projected. So far”- Pekao analysts wrote.
They estimate that in 2021 the increase in consumer prices will reach 4.4%, and in 2022 they expect a slight slowdown to 3.8%.
The report added that the recent interview with the NBP governor for the PAP has somewhat limited the scale of market expectations for rate hikes.
“In September, interest rates will remain unchanged (the key rate is still 0.10%), but we still expect the monetary tightening cycle to start in November. A peaceful interview with NBP governors shook the markets, but it did not significantly change the valuation of key assets. The exchange rate will remain The zloty against the euro is in the range of 4.50-55, and long-term interest rates – thanks to a combination of domestic and foreign factors – will remain around 2 percent.” – We read the report.
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According to economists, the second half of 2021 will bring a further improvement in the situation in the labor market, however, the pace of employment recovery will slow down.
“We estimate that at the end of 2021 the unemployment rate will reach 5.8 percent. In contrast, wage dynamics will remain at a high level (nominally 7-8 percent year on year) in the coming months” – it was written.
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