October 2, 2022

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Poland without gas?  This is the worst case scenario

Poland without gas? This is the worst case scenario

Thanks to our own extraction, LNG supplies and Baltic pipelines, there will be no problems with gas this winter. However, a black scenario. Where it is not possible to rule out running out of gas. Then PGNiG will have to cut off supplies. The question is who will suffer first.

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  • There are many indications that there should be no problems with gas this winter.
  • However, if there is a shortage of gas, who will have to cut off the gas supply by PGNiG in the first place?
  • Families are the most protected in a crisis situation, while industry is the least protected.

With Russia shutting down Nord Stream, Europe is simply short of gas. Compared to other member states, such as Germany or Slovakia, the situation in Poland is quite different: Poland has taken steps to reduce its dependence on gas from Russia for years. It was supposed to expire at the end of this year, when the Yamal contract expired, but Gazprom terminated the contract in April, unjustifiably suspending gas supplies to our country.

There should be no shortage of gas in winter, because supplies are insured

Our annual domestic production is about 3.7 billion cubic meters. raw materials. In addition, there are about 3 billion cubic meters. gas from Norway. At the same time, as PGNiG representatives have repeatedly emphasized, the company is “looking around” and it cannot be ruled out that it will be even larger.

Another mystery in our gas puzzle is the delivery of LNG through two stations. The first station with the largest capacity is the gas station in Owenogese. Annually, it can currently collect 6.2 billion cubic meters. Gas (after regasification). The second is the Lithuanian in Klaipeda, where PGNiG can collect more than 1 billion cubic meters. raw materials.

In addition to all these resources, PGNiG has 2.5 billion contracted cubic meters. Gas from the Baltic Pipe (except for gas of private production). In addition, gas reserves are 3.2 billion cubic meters. raw materials.

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So, in practice, we can count on about 19 billion cubic meters. Gas. is this too much? The index of domestic gas consumption was set last year. It amounted to about 20 billion cubic meters. However, in this regard, the demand will be less, and as announced by Thomas Stobio, President of Gaz-System, the company responsible for the gas plant and the strategic gas pipeline, it will amount to about 18 billion cubic meters.

We are well prepared for the heating season, even if the fertilizer industry returns to normal production, says PGNiG’s Joanna Zakryuska.

Black Scenario – Gas for local customers does not exist

Although there are many indications that there should not be problems with gas, it cannot be completely ruled out. The key is the supply of liquefied raw materials. However, it must be remembered that some of the raw materials will come from spot contracts. These have their own rules. It also happens that when it flows to the recipient, the gas will end up with someone else pushing more.

Riga concerned about gas security in the country

In addition, be aware that ship deliveries always have aura risk. Storms and the icy effect of water bodies can have a negative impact on supplies.

So, if there is a shortage of gas, who will have to cut off the gas supply by PGNiG in the first place?

We have such experience. In 2006 there was a so-called gas crisis. Gazprom stopped transporting gas through the territory of Ukraine. In many EU countries there has been a decrease in gas supplies. The record holder was Hungary, which lost up to 40 per cent. imported gas. About 33 percent Austria, Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia recorded smaller deliveries. Our country reduced deliveries by about 14 percent.

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However, the real test was 2009. At that time, temporary gas supplies from Russia were reduced by 70%, and we did not really have alternative sources at that time. But this is nothing compared to, say, Slovakia, which lost all supplies and had to impose a state of emergency in the economy.

At that time, our country also had to face the problem due to the lack of contracted gas. What was done back then will be reflected in a possible gas shortage now.

Families are the most protected, and the industry is the least

Restrictions on gas fuel consumption may be imposed on the basis of the Law of February 16, 2007 on stocks of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas, the Code of Conduct in Cases of Threats to State Fuel Security and Disruptions in the Crude Oil Market, and Cabinet Order of February 17, 2021 on the method and procedure for imposing Restrictions on the consumption of natural gas.

The first step means that there are no problems with the gas supply, and the twelfth step means that there is no gas at all. Indirect restrictions refer to limitations on gas availability.

For example, due to the fact that we have domestic production, the 12th degree of supply does not pose a threat to us. However, the lack of imported gas will shock our country. Fortunately, it’s just a theory.

Even if there are any problems with raw materials at present, it must be emphasized that households will not suffer from gas shortage. It will also be made available to hospitals and other beneficiaries of primary importance to community work.

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In practice, the amount of gas less than the demand means, in the first place, the limitation of gas supply to the industry. In the event of a crisis, less raw materials will be obtained first from nitrogen plants, glass plants or other major industrial gas consumers. Subsequently, companies from other industries can rely on smaller supplies of raw materials.

US LNG is currently a major component of building gas reserves in the European Union

In any case, in 2009, such a scenario has already been reworked, and the nitrogen industry has suffered in the first place. The result was the loss of millions of plants due to the need to suspend production. Interestingly, even gas-intensive companies, when certain quantities of gas are available, cannot be fully exhausted. It is about the safety of factories and their facilities. Complete lack of gas can cause huge losses.

It is worth noting that other countries also have “black hour” scenarios.

Everywhere, the priority is to meet the needs of the population in the first place. Scenarios are adapted to local conditions.