New research sheds light on the next major earthquake that may occur in Japan

The research team drilled a well in Japanese subduction zone Nankai. It turns out that tectonic pressures in this region are lower than expected. It is interesting to find The fault causes a major earthquake approximately every 100 years.

– This is the core of the subduction zone, just above where the fault is blocking, as the system was expected to do so energy storage between successive earthquakes. It’s changing the way we think about stresses in these systems, says Demian Safire of the University of Texas Geophysics Institute.

The Nanki Fault has not yet shown significant signs of ‘tectonic stress’. However, according to Sfeir, this does not change the long-term view of the region. The last earthquake occurred in 1946. The fault caused the movement at that time tsunamiThousands of people were killed. Scientists believe it will happen again in the next 50 years. The research aims to determine the relationship between tectonic forces and earthquake cycle. This can lead to better expectations.

As Harold Tobin of the University of Washington said, “Currently, we have no way of knowing if the Great Earthquake and Tsunami will occur this afternoon or in 200 years.” But I have some optimism for which I thank you more and more direct notesLike me, we can begin to recognize when something abnormal happened.

To carry out the necessary research, scientists dug in tectonic plate At a depth of about 3.2 km. Below, the well was very unstable. Unfortunately, it was about 1.6 kilometers to drill directly into the rift itself. The work was carried out aboard the Japanese scientific drill ship Chikyu.

Contrary to expectations, the horizontal pressure that should have arisen since the last great earthquake was approaching zero. This means that the fault has already released its pent-up energy. Scientists have several explanations for these observations: it is possible that the fault takes less energy to cause a large earthquake, or that Stresses occur near the faultBelow the maximum digging depth achieved. On the other hand, tectonic movements may occur suddenly in the coming years. The researchers stress that the drilling done showed the need for more research and long-term monitoring of failures.