DoRzeczy.pl: According to the data of the Ministry of National Defense of UkraineOn the border with this country, Russia has already collected more than 127 thousand. Soldiers. In addition, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said last week that Russia was able to launch an invasion “at any time.”
General Roman Bolko: Russia has enough power to launch an invasion at any time. Experts, indicating that 20-30 thousand soldiers are still missing, can put such analyzes in fiction. Russia has shown many times that it is capable of transferring massive forces to the area of interest to it within 24 hours.
how to get US President Joe Biden’s speechWho said that in the event of a “small intervention” NATO would not respond? They were quickly corrected, but the aversion remained.
It seemed that the seasoned diplomat and seasoned politician would not speak of the stupid things that usually happen behind the scenes. Biden’s words revealed somewhat the way Americans think. Putin should have welcomed this with great joy. There is such a thing as scaling – high aggressiveness, low aggressiveness. From the point of view of NATO and Poland, it is very dangerous. How does a little aggression compare with a lot of aggression? Hybrid warfare is the type of action below the threshold that is considered war, yet it achieves its goals by doing so. Note that Ukraine is eaten piece by piece. First the Crimea, then the Donbass, then the planting of its power in Kiev. Looking at this action as a whole, it turns out that a little aggression turns into a lot of aggression.
What would the first attack on Ukraine look like and what was the point of deploying Russian soldiers around the border?
This is a psychological factor and an immediate response circuit that can be used at any time. If Ukraine wants to do anything, there is no such possibility, because Russia’s borders are secured. Another factor is the presence of security in the event that Russia does not succeed. If the “green men” or part of the Russian troops were stopped by the Ukrainian troops, then it is likely that the collective forces assembled by Russia will be able to invade and rescue their prisoners. Russia would also have another excuse to enter Ukraine. It will be said that this was an aid to the Russian minority, although in fact it was the fifth column that Moscow had set up.
So Putin will pretend and play again?
He will achieve his goals with “a little aggression.” In the Kremlin, they will pretend that no force was used, and at the same time they will want to overthrow the power in Kiev in order to imprison a man like Lukashenka in Ukraine.
What if you succeed?
We have a big problem here. All those who say that Ukraine should not be helped because of history are wrong. It is worth emphasizing that the independence and stability of Ukraine and Belarus are for us a guarantee of security. If Ukraine falls into the hands of the Russians, we will go back to the Cold War and the Soviet Empire. Thus, Putin will implement the scenario outlined by the late Lech Kaczynski. Georgia first, then Ukraine, then Putin will go ahead, maybe take Poland. Nothing will stop him because he will be successful and strengthened both externally and internally. Biden will be more vulnerable after his second defeat (the first was in Afghanistan), and I hope the White House knows about that.
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