September 28, 2021

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Inflation TOP3: fuel, garbage, chicken

Inflation TOP3: fuel, garbage, chicken

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While examining the level of inflation, the Central Statistical Office aims to estimate the amount of increase, on average, in the prices of all things and services that Poles consume. The problem is that everyone spends their money differently. We could say more than that – citizens who spend money just like a “statistician” probably don’t exist at all in practice. why? Well, because the average pole is at about 16 percent. rented, and 84 percent. The owner of an apartment or house. In addition, each person has 71 percent. A car, about half a dishwasher and 3/4 a computer. Moreover, statistically, each citizen eats, for example, more than 5 kg of meat, about 3 kg of bread and 11 eggs every month.

I don’t think you need to convince anyone that in practice it looks a bit different. This does not mean in any way that the publication of the Central Statistical Office is not interesting. exactly the contrary. We can get very interesting information from it – for example about what has become more and more affordable recently.

Let’s start with the items on this second list. Unfortunately, it is shorter. For example, in a July publication, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported that fruit is currently the fastest and cheapest category. This was 8.4 percent. Cheaper than last year. Prices of communications equipment, pork, insurance, tea and clothing also fell. You have to pay for these things less than they did in July 2020 (by 1 to about 7 percent).

Other goods and services are usually more expensive than last year. Over the past 12 months, prices for fuel (30%), waste disposal (23%), and poultry meat (approximately 23%) have risen the most.

Data from the Central Statistics Office (GUS) also shows that transportation costs (one of the most expensive derivatives of fuel) and those related to housing, hurt the average family’s budget the most.

To show the strength of this effect, we can estimate that had it not been for recent increases in fuel prices, waste disposal, water supply, energy carriers, higher rents or higher furniture prices, inflation in July would not have reached 5%. (as reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics), but by more than half (less than 2.3 percent).

We can show this phenomenon in more concrete numbers. HRE Investments, for example, estimates that a family of three spent approximately PLN 1011 on maintaining, operating and furnishing an apartment in July. It is almost 53 zlotys more than the previous year. This is largely a result of higher garbage collection rates (an increase of over 23% year over year), but it is also about 10% more expensive. electricity. Furniture prices have also been rising at about the same speed lately, which may be a result of higher timber prices. Moreover, it’s hard to find anything that makes up the widely understood costs of a “roof over your head,” which would be cheaper today than it was a year ago.

Our estimated cost of living is based on inflation information published monthly by the Central Statistical Office. Thanks to this, we know how the prices of individual goods and services related to maintenance, equipment and the operation of the house change. However, one of the indispensable sources of data is also information on expenditure of 3-person households. Unfortunately, it is only published once a year, and therefore it is necessary to adjust our estimates periodically.

Furthermore, our calculations relate to a Polish statistical family. In practice, this means that the apartment rent is included in the above amount to a very small extent. All because most Poles live in real estate they own. Only 4-5 per cent. People are the tenants who pay rent on a no-invocation basis. In addition, 11-12 per cent. Citizens are tenants who use apartments at reduced rent (eg municipal, company or TBS). Moreover, this amount does not include loan installments taken for the purchase of real estate. These costs were omitted by the CSO in its calculations.

In simplified terms, it can be assumed that our calculations show the costs of operating and equipping the house rather than acquiring it. If a person rents or has a loan, then his monthly cost is much higher – at least several tens of percent, if not several times higher.

Bartosz Turek, Senior Analyst at HRE Investments

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