Inflation in Russia is declining. He hasn’t reached this level since the beginning of the war

This caused the third month in a row to slow down The annual inflation rate in Russia was 15.1 percent. in julyIn June, this indicator was 15.9 percent. – The Federal Statistics Office announced Wednesday. Bloomberg reports that the median expectation in a survey of 16 economists was 15.3%.

In monthly terms, prices are down 0.39 percent, the most in five years. The cost of fruits and vegetables is twice as low compared to June.

Bloomberg notes that Russia’s price momentum was so strong that the central bank was able to lower it Interest rates are below pre-war levels. Even deeper monetary stimulus is possible, but perhaps in smaller steps, especially as new price risks emerge.

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Fiscal policy can be one source of inflation risk as the government increases spending on anti-crisis measures and social programmes. Budget surplus fell to 482 billion rubles ($7.9 billion) In January-July, it is down about two-thirds compared to the first six months of the year.

With demand rebounding above supply, price pressures are set to recover and monthly inflation may rise again in October. Budget expenditures will also help – comments of Alexander Isakov, a Russian economist, quoted by Bloomberg.

The Bank of Russia last month revised its inflation forecasts and now expects prices to end the year with 12-15% growth. Compared to previous forecasts, 14-17%