There is a 50% chance that inflation in 2022 will be in the range of 13.2-15.4%, according to a July forecast from the Economic Analysis Department of the Polish National Bank. In 2023 it will be in the range of 9.8-15.1 percent, and in 2024, 2.2-6.0 percent.
predictions about inflation In Poland it was included in the statement after Thursday’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. According to the forecast, there is a 50% probability that the annual price dynamics will be in the range of 13.2-15.4% in 2022. The March forecast assumed a range of 9.3-12.2 percent. This means that inflation may be higher than was assumed a few months ago.
Next year, annual price dynamics may be in the range of 9.8-15.1 percent, versus 7.0-11.0 percent according to the March forecast. On the other hand, the inflation rate in 2024 is expected to range between 2.2 and 6.0 percent compared to 2.8 to 5.7 percent in the March forecast.
The projection is set up assuming no change NBP . Interest Rates And take into account the data available until June 22 this year.
Last week, the Central Bureau of Statistics published preliminary inflation data for June of this year. The so-called quick estimate shows that the annual price increase was 15.6 percent.
According to the July forecast, 50% annual GDP growth is likely to be in the range of 3.9-5.5% in 2022 (versus 3.4-5.3% in the March forecast), and 0.2-2.3% in 2023 (compared to 1.9-4.1 %) and 1.0-3.5% in 2024 (compared to 1.4-4.0%).
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